Discussion:
A position with no rollout
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peps...@gmail.com
2024-01-21 02:14:16 UTC
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I won't say that I considered my decision a coin toss but my
confidence level was only around 55 to 60%. I certainly felt
the decision was marginal.
I was completely right about the marginality but chose the
wrong side of the border -- my take was very slightly wrong.

Paul

XGID=--CCBBBa----a---Ac-bcA-cbA:2:-1:-1:00:5:5:0:11:10

X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:5 O:5 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 107 X-O: 5-5/11
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 80.39% (G:30.15% B:1.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.61% (G:2.02% B:0.06%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.796, Double=+1.016

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.958 (-0.042)
Redouble/Take: +1.016 (+0.016)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
peps...@gmail.com
2024-01-21 02:17:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by ***@gmail.com
I won't say that I considered my decision a coin toss but my
confidence level was only around 55 to 60%. I certainly felt
the decision was marginal.
I was completely right about the marginality but chose the
wrong side of the border -- my take was very slightly wrong.
Paul
XGID=--CCBBBa----a---Ac-bcA-cbA:2:-1:-1:00:5:5:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:5 O:5 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 107 X-O: 5-5/11
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 80.39% (G:30.15% B:1.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.61% (G:2.02% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.796, Double=+1.016
No redouble: +0.958 (-0.042)
Redouble/Take: +1.016 (+0.016)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
BTW, this take was my only cube error in this game (but not my only cube error in the match [which I won]).

Paul

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