Discussion:
5pt or hit?
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2020-08-31 22:18:11 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow
Michael
2020-08-31 22:42:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
---
Tim Chow
I beleive it's the 5 point gaining a positional advantage such that O needs a 21 or 11 plus split of her back checkers to equalize.
Paul Epstein
2020-08-31 23:18:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
Make the 5 point for sure. The hit doesn't do enough to be a candidate.
We only have a one point board and with another checker back, O can make
a valuable point in our inner board.

Make the 5 point with 87% confidence. Ok, this isn't really "for sure"
But I'm surer than usual.

Paul
Michael
2020-09-01 07:39:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
Make the 5 point for sure. The hit doesn't do enough to be a candidate.
We only have a one point board and with another checker back, O can make
a valuable point in our inner board.
Make the 5 point with 87% confidence. Ok, this isn't really "for sure"
But I'm surer than usual.
Paul
Agree with what you said, but I beleive the split of our back checkers compared to O's non split is the decisive factor.
Paul Epstein
2020-09-01 10:18:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
Make the 5 point for sure. The hit doesn't do enough to be a candidate.
We only have a one point board and with another checker back, O can make
a valuable point in our inner board.
Make the 5 point with 87% confidence. Ok, this isn't really "for sure"
But I'm surer than usual.
Paul
Agree with what you said, but I beleive the split of our back checkers compared to O's non split is the decisive factor.
So if we make the 23 point, so our back checkers are no longer split,
would you hit in this variant?
I wouldn't but would still make the 5 point.

Paul
Michael
2020-09-01 13:29:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Michael
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
Make the 5 point for sure. The hit doesn't do enough to be a candidate.
We only have a one point board and with another checker back, O can make
a valuable point in our inner board.
Make the 5 point with 87% confidence. Ok, this isn't really "for sure"
But I'm surer than usual.
Paul
Agree with what you said, but I beleive the split of our back checkers compared to O's non split is the decisive factor.
So if we make the 23 point, so our back checkers are no longer split,
would you hit in this variant?
I wouldn't but would still make the 5 point.
Paul
No, that would be an anchor Vs no split. Hitting at your variant or the Original position becomes a serious option if O had split at a high point e.g. her 21.
Paul Epstein
2020-09-01 22:23:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Michael
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
Make the 5 point for sure. The hit doesn't do enough to be a candidate.
We only have a one point board and with another checker back, O can make
a valuable point in our inner board.
Make the 5 point with 87% confidence. Ok, this isn't really "for sure"
But I'm surer than usual.
Paul
Agree with what you said, but I beleive the split of our back checkers compared to O's non split is the decisive factor.
So if we make the 23 point, so our back checkers are no longer split,
would you hit in this variant?
I wouldn't but would still make the 5 point.
Paul
No, that would be an anchor Vs no split. Hitting at your variant or the Original position becomes a serious option if O had split at a high point e.g. her 21.
That's true.
A sadder but wiser bg player, I rose the morrow morn.

Paul
Michael
2020-09-02 12:11:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
That's true.
A sadder but wiser bg player, I rose the morrow morn.
Paul
"..and if I meet you after long years how shall I greet you?
With silence and tears."

Don't remember who wrote that but we were oblidged to take "advanced" English (as a foregin language) in our Engineering Department. The Professor was a British lady-an amazing personality who graduated the Oxford, had this "bright" idea in my graduate year to introduce us to English poetry of the previous centuries, poets like Coleridge et al. I still remember many titles, but almost nothing of the content, as I couldn't understand anything. :-(
Bud Spencer
2020-09-02 13:13:38 UTC
Permalink
... as I couldn't understand anything. :-(
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/
Bud
/

a1=S0
b1=[1..2,'L0L']
a2=2*a1
a3=S1.4#b1
a4=(a2,a3)
a5=64*a4
Michael
2020-09-02 13:28:02 UTC
Permalink
... as I couldn't understand anything. :-(
.... etc
What a noisy Bug, I can't hear anything.
Thank you very much.
Bud Spencer
2020-09-02 17:41:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
Thank you very much.
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e love love love love love love love love love
love love love love love love love love l
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love love love love love love lov
e love love love love love lov
e love love love love love
love love love love lo
ve love love love lo
ve love love love
love love love
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love lo
ve



/
Bud
/

a1=S0
b1=[1..2,'L0L']
a2=2*a1
a3=S1.4#b1
a4=(a2,a3)
a5=64*a4
BlueDice
2020-09-02 21:26:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
---
Tim Chow
Hit!
O is itching to attack with 11 in the zone and a stripped mid-point.
--
BD
Tim Chow
2020-09-04 13:17:40 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

I almost always post decisions that I've faced, but this is from a chouette
where X was the box and I was on the team. The box made the 5pt and I
was silently thinking that the hit would have been better. But XG agrees
with the box. Michael is right that XG would prefer to hit if O had already
split to her 21pt. I expected that XG would hit if O had already split to
her 22pt---but see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.295
Player: 57.89% (G:18.94% B:1.29%)
Opponent: 42.11% (G:16.11% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.287..+0.303) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/16* eq:+0.242 (-0.053)
Player: 56.58% (G:16.72% B:1.31%)
Opponent: 43.42% (G:14.84% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.234..+0.251) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-a--ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.144
Player: 54.48% (G:17.17% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 45.52% (G:17.15% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.137..+0.152) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/16* eq:+0.113 (-0.031)
Player: 53.72% (G:14.85% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 46.28% (G:15.70% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.105..+0.122) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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