XGID=-b----ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
I almost always post decisions that I've faced, but this is from a chouette
where X was the box and I was on the team. The box made the 5pt and I
was silently thinking that the hit would have been better. But XG agrees
with the box. Michael is right that XG would prefer to hit if O had already
split to her 21pt. I expected that XG would hit if O had already split to
her 22pt---but see the variant below.
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.295
Player: 57.89% (G:18.94% B:1.29%)
Opponent: 42.11% (G:16.11% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.287..+0.303) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 23/16* eq:+0.242 (-0.053)
Player: 56.58% (G:16.72% B:1.31%)
Opponent: 43.42% (G:14.84% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.234..+0.251) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a-a--ECB--AbB--ac-eb--AA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.144
Player: 54.48% (G:17.17% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 45.52% (G:17.15% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.137..+0.152) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 23/16* eq:+0.113 (-0.031)
Player: 53.72% (G:14.85% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 46.28% (G:15.70% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.105..+0.122) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow