I assessed a position correctly

[[e-mail]]

Here I had a clear preference for the greedy play -- I wasn't in coin-toss mode.
Though I did consider the decision close.
And that's exactly what the bot says -- play greedy but the decision's close.
Obviously, it makes all the difference in the world that I usually have a
return shot if hit.

Paul

XGID=aBCCBBB---------------acc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 37 X-O: 9-9/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. 4-ply 6/Off 2/Off eq:+0.166
Player: 58.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 41.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

2. 4-ply 6/4 6/Off eq:+0.145 (-0.021)
Player: 57.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 42.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

3. 3-ply 6/Off 3/1 eq:+0.049 (-0.117)
Player: 52.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

4. 1-ply 6/Off 5/3 eq:-0.246 (-0.413)
Player: 37.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 62.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

5. 1-ply 6/Off 4/2 eq:-0.280 (-0.446)
Player: 35.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 64.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[Timothy Chow]

Post by ***@gmail.com
Obviously, it makes all the difference in the world that I usually have a
return shot if hit.

Your opponent's blot is certainly relevant, but I think the primary
consideration is how close the race is.

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=aBCCBBB------------a---cc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 40 X-O: 9-9/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq:+0.281
Player: 64.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 35.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.279..+0.283) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq:+0.273 (-0.008)
Player: 63.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 36.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.271..+0.275) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=aBCCBBB----------------cc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 34 X-O: 9-9/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq:-0.077
Player: 46.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 53.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.078..-0.076) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq:-0.097 (-0.020)
Player: 45.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 54.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.098..-0.095) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow