Post by Timothy ChowPost by Bradley K. ShermanPost by Timothy Chow...
Technically, the two scores aren't exactly the same, because at
3-away post-Crawford, you can try "the trick."
https://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+437
But what if you get a lucky roll and the position turns *very*
gammonish? Then the waiting to double trick backfires.
Yes. Here's an example from Gus Hansen versus Bob Koca.
https://vimeo.com/10287279#t=2471
The commentators (one of whom I think was Sander Lyllof) thought
that Bob Koca's pass was a blunder, but XG says the pass was correct.
XGID=aaBBc-B-C---aD--AAcdb-----:0:0:1:00:10:12:0:13:10
Score is X:10 O:12 13 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O | | O X X X |
| O O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| X X O X | | X |
| O X X O X | | X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 180 X-O: 10-12/13
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 66.08% (G:36.87% B:2.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.92% (G:5.64% B:0.27%)
No double: +0.921 (-0.079)
Double/Take: +1.148 (+0.148)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Thanks for the clip.
A number of comments follow.
I thought the commentating was naive. Bob Koca is an extraordinarily
accomplished mathematician (by normal standards -- not saying he's Terry Tao)
just like you are.
Bob Koca seems to have anticipated the "free take, must take" response and therefore
did a great pantomime act of using exaggerated hand gestures and head movements
to loudly broadcast to the audience: "Hey guys! I'm a mathematician here, just
figuring out all the details mathematically. I know that the slogan says it's a take but
I'm working out the details. Ok?"
Bizarrely, the commentators seem to have ignored the very obvious point that Bob
gave the matter intense (although quick) thought and assumed he was just blundering carelessly.
However, it's refreshing that we get a real human response rather than just copying XG.
Maybe the whole "trick" concept can be revisited thanks to the feedback of the dynamic trio
of Tim, Bob and Bradley. If Bradley doesn't mind shortening his name to "Brad", we definitely
can launch a pilot for a new backgammon series -- "Tim, Bob and Brad".
Of course, the trick can be well-executed if we can be sure of no market losers but that
leaves 441 sequences to check.
I remember you correcting my spelling of someone's name. (Can't remember if that was this
forum or another context -- perhaps private email).
So you might like to note that there are two f's in the backgammon Lylloff.
Thank You.
Paul