XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53
6/3 6/1 is terribly ugly, but I thought that O's board was too strong
to play 13/10 13/8. XG 3-ply agrees with 6/3 6/1, but a rollout
overturns that verdict. Evidently, O's blot in her board is enough
to swing the balance (see variant).
1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.442
Player: 31.48% (G:12.31% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 68.52% (G:28.79% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.451..-0.433) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.585 (-0.143)
Player: 28.35% (G:6.26% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 71.65% (G:30.07% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.595..-0.575) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----cbbb---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53
1. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.599
Player: 27.81% (G:6.71% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 72.19% (G:30.23% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.609..-0.589) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.618 (-0.019)
Player: 26.88% (G:7.12% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 73.12% (G:30.85% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.626..-0.611) - [0.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow