Not the world's smoothest bearin position

[Tim Chow]

XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

[Peter Percival]

Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

We'll leave 11 where it is, won't we?

[j***@gmail.com]

Post by Peter Percival

Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

We'll leave 11 where it is, won't we?

Yes, I had to tilt my head sideways like a V8 commercial to even find another play.

Stick

[Michael]

Post by j***@gmail.com

Post by Peter Percival

Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

We'll leave 11 where it is, won't we?

Yes, I had to tilt my head sideways like a V8 commercial to even find another play.
Stick

Does the V8 commercial say anything about gammons? ;-)

[Michael]

Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43
---
Tim Chow

I see many problems with the safe move of 9/6 11/7, in how we would play upcoming 5s and 3s. So I guess the right move is to slot the 4 point with 11/4.
If she hits she breaks anchor and that would result to many gammon losses for her considering her blot at the 5 point. We have a huge race lead and we can survive on the race if we get hit.
Some confidence in this mainly from the QF

11/4

[j***@gmail.com]

Post by Michael

Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43
---
Tim Chow

I see many problems with the safe move of 9/6 11/7, in how we would play upcoming 5s and 3s. So I guess the right move is to slot the 4 point with 11/4.
If she hits she breaks anchor and that would result to many gammon losses for her considering her blot at the 5 point. We have a huge race lead and we can survive on the race if we get hit.
Some confidence in this mainly from the QF
11/4

Get ahead in the race and play safe. (this assumes a clear lead in the race and checkers fully escaped more or less) That is one of the many dmp mottos. Your play smacks this motto in the face so should probably be discarded.

Stick

[Tim Chow]

Post by j***@gmail.com
Get ahead in the race and play safe.

X is already ahead in the race, and the safe play is 11/7 9/6. Is that
what you mean?

---
Tim Chow

[Michael]

Post by Tim Chow

Post by j***@gmail.com
Get ahead in the race and play safe.

X is already ahead in the race, and the safe play is 11/7 9/6. Is that
what you mean?
---
Tim Chow

I think he agreed with Peter that the 11 point checker should stay there.
Maybe because the plan is to clear the 7 and then that one.

[Tim Chow]

Post by Michael
I think he agreed with Peter that the 11 point checker should stay there.

Yes, he also said, "I had to tilt my head sideways like a V8 commercial
to even find another play." But most people, following the advice "Get
ahead in the race and play safe," would be able to find 11/7 9/6 without
tilting their head sideways.

---
Tim Chow

[Peter Percival]

Post by Tim Chow

Post by Michael
I think he agreed with Peter that the 11 point checker should stay there.

Yes, he also said, "I had to tilt my head sideways like a V8 commercial
to even find another play." But most people, following the advice "Get
ahead in the race and play safe," would be able to find 11/7 9/6 without
tilting their head sideways.

Will some kind person please explain "V8 commercial" to me?

Playing safe is a good idea, but so too is making it more likely that
there'll be safe play in the future, which is why I left a checker on
the 11 pt.

[Michael]

Post by Peter Percival

Post by Tim Chow

Post by Michael
I think he agreed with Peter that the 11 point checker should stay there.

Yes, he also said, "I had to tilt my head sideways like a V8 commercial
to even find another play." But most people, following the advice "Get
ahead in the race and play safe," would be able to find 11/7 9/6 without
tilting their head sideways.

Will some kind person please explain "V8 commercial" to me?
Playing safe is a good idea, but so too is making it more likely that
there'll be safe play in the future, which is why I left a checker on
the 11 pt.

This might help

[Paul]

Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

QF gives the plan of paying to fill the gap while
we have a shot at the 5 point blot if hit.

So 11/4.

Paul

[Tim Chow]

XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-cabc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

Generally speaking if we've escaped everything and are just bearing in
then we should be mostly playing safe, so 11/4 is out (and I didn't even
bother rolling it out). However, there's often a tradeoff between
volunteering a few indirect shots immediately and increasing the risk of
leaving a shot later by creating an inflexible position (i.e., pay now
or pay later). 11/7 9/6 volunteers no shots now but it's usually a bad
idea, from a long-term point of view, to stack up checkers on the bar
point when the opponent holds your 2pt. You then have to play your sixes
7/1, which is wasteful and might force you to leave a shot on the bar
point when your opponent has a stronger board.

Between 9/6 7/3 and 9/6 5/1, 7/3 creates a dilly builder but 5/1 dumps
behind the anchor, so 7/3 is the lesser of two evils.

In the variant, I have strengthened O's board. The rollout says that the
9/6 7/3 and 11/7 9/6 are much closer in equity but it still favors 9/6 7/3.

1. Rollout¹ 9/6 7/3 eq:+0.561
Player: 76.83% (G:11.45% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 23.17% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.556..+0.565) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/6 5/1 eq:+0.482 (-0.079)
Player: 74.12% (G:9.50% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 25.88% (G:2.04% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.477..+0.487) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/7 9/6 eq:+0.463 (-0.098)
Player: 73.51% (G:9.43% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 26.49% (G:2.31% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.457..+0.469) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BbB-DBC-A-Aba---a-bbbc---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
[phone]------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X |
[phone]-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 9/6 7/3 eq:+0.489
Player: 74.16% (G:10.92% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 25.84% (G:2.11% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.484..+0.495) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/7 9/6 eq:+0.452 (-0.038)
Player: 73.19% (G:8.36% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 26.81% (G:2.45% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.446..+0.458) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow