Discussion:
Attack?
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2020-06-08 00:54:08 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a-bBCCBBBA-------accbba--:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
| X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-08 12:24:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-bBCCBBBA-------accbba--:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
| X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 52
O has decent timing for a backgame, so X wants to get
hit to wreck O's timing. General strategy is to leave blots
on the ace and deuce points therefore.
Of course, there's a risk that we could get hit and trapped and have to
crunch, but it's more likely that being hit will gain good timing while
O's board is wrecked so 6/1* and then the only feasible deuce is 10/8.

Am I confident?
Yes, I do feel somewhat confident, but isn't that too much of a personal
question?

Paul
Wally
2020-06-08 13:00:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-bBCCBBBA-------accbba--:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
| X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 52
---
Tim Chow
I like 9/7 9/4. O isn't on the bar, so he still has to play all his big numbers, and X has great distribution so his next couple of rolls will play well.
Tim Chow
2020-06-12 03:50:03 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a-bBCCBBBA-------accbba--:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
| X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 52

There are three main candidates: the pedestrian 10/5 6/4 holding the prime;
the attacking play 10/8 6/1*; and the prime-breaking 9/7 9/4.

The key feature of O's position is that her forward position is temporarily
still pretty good, but will probably collapse in a couple of rolls. The
problem with 10/5 6/4 is that it front-loads X's prime, risking leaving a
shot before O collapses. The problem with hitting is that then some of O's
big numbers don't play, again letting her hold her prime. Since O is
anchored, hitting doesn't really win any extra gammons. The problem with
9/7 9/4 is that it gives O two hitting rolls. Other than that, however, it
leaves X with a flexible position that should let him hold a five-prime for
a couple of rolls while O either collapses, or perhaps is forced to run off
the anchor, allowing X to attack.

1. Rollout¹ 9/7 9/4 eq:+0.785
Player: 85.84% (G:12.03% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 14.16% (G:0.98% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.780..+0.790) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/8 6/1* eq:+0.730 (-0.055)
Player: 83.64% (G:12.10% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 16.36% (G:1.47% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.724..+0.737) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/4 eq:+0.676 (-0.109)
Player: 80.93% (G:13.53% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 19.07% (G:2.10% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.671..+0.682) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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