XGID=-aB-BbC-B--BcD---b-dab----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O | +---+

| X O | | O O | | 2 |

| X | | O | +---+

| X | | O |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | X |

| O X X | | X O X X |

| O X X | | X O X X O |

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 120 O: 156 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube

X to play 62

I'm still not good at judging whether the opponent's weak board justifies

this kind of early pay-a-double-shot-now decision. See also the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq:+0.151

Player: 61.42% (G:15.22% B:0.57%)

Opponent: 38.58% (G:9.06% B:0.30%)

Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.141..+0.160) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/4 eq:+0.112 (-0.039)

Player: 59.97% (G:15.47% B:0.58%)

Opponent: 40.03% (G:10.09% B:0.35%)

Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.103..+0.121) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/2 eq:+0.083 (-0.068)

Player: 59.57% (G:12.79% B:0.37%)

Opponent: 40.43% (G:9.67% B:0.32%)

Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.075..+0.090) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq:+0.074 (-0.077)

Player: 58.67% (G:14.50% B:0.54%)

Opponent: 41.33% (G:10.24% B:0.35%)

Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.066..+0.082) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------

Variant

-------

XGID=-aB-BbC-B--BcD---bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O O | | O O | +---+

| X O O | | O O | | 2 |

| X | | O | +---+

| X | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | |

| O | | X |

| O X X | | X O X X |

| O X X | | X O X X O |

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 120 O: 159 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube

X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/2 eq:+0.105

Player: 59.52% (G:14.29% B:0.41%)

Opponent: 40.48% (G:9.12% B:0.34%)

Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.100..+0.109) - [49.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq:+0.105

Player: 59.83% (G:14.35% B:0.50%)

Opponent: 40.17% (G:8.78% B:0.34%)

Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.100..+0.109) - [50.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/4 eq:+0.079 (-0.026)

Player: 58.69% (G:15.17% B:0.61%)

Opponent: 41.31% (G:9.63% B:0.37%)

Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.074..+0.083) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---

Tim Chow