Discussion:
Break something again
Add Reply
Tim Chow
2020-07-28 12:36:59 UTC
Reply
Permalink
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-07-28 13:23:27 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
---
Tim Chow
3 active builders (or more) if you run = break the board. 2 active builders = run/TCTC. This is simplified of course.

Stick
Peter
2020-07-28 17:26:33 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
---
Tim Chow
The prime. But how?
Paul Epstein
2020-07-28 21:09:14 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
After the roll, we will be 8 pips down in the pip-count
which is somewhat close. We do have to make adjustments
for the great wastage on our acepoint, but it does look like
running is easily our best plan. I don't think sitting back and
waiting for a shot is nearly as good.
Another thing to consider is that, if we run and O gets the closeout,
we are almost certain to save the gammon.
If we run and O picks and passes or closes us out, we will wish we did something else.
Let's count the pick-and-passes and closeouts:
Any 1 except 51 and 61, 22/23/24, 33/34.
These are Oppy's excellent rolls. O is nearly a 60% favourite not to
roll any of these great numbers. Furthermore, even if O picks and passes,
we usually get an indirect shot and a chance at a good race with a quick
55.

20/13 is my semi-Walt.
Did I read the other responses? Yes.
Did I understand the other responses? No.
Why not? Because Stick used weird abbreviations like "TC".
Was I influenced by the other responses? No.
Why not? Because I couldn't understand Stick's response and Peter
never provided any evidence or argument to support his hypothesis.

Paul
Peter
2020-07-28 21:27:28 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
After the roll, we will be 8 pips down in the pip-count
which is somewhat close. We do have to make adjustments
for the great wastage on our acepoint, but it does look like
running is easily our best plan. I don't think sitting back and
waiting for a shot is nearly as good.
Another thing to consider is that, if we run and O gets the closeout,
we are almost certain to save the gammon.
If we run and O picks and passes or closes us out, we will wish we did something else.
Any 1 except 51 and 61, 22/23/24, 33/34.
These are Oppy's excellent rolls. O is nearly a 60% favourite not to
roll any of these great numbers. Furthermore, even if O picks and passes,
we usually get an indirect shot and a chance at a good race with a quick
55.
20/13 is my semi-Walt.
Did I read the other responses? Yes.
Did I understand the other responses? No.
Why not? Because Stick used weird abbreviations like "TC".
Even worser: TCTC. I was wodnering about it myself.

(My spell checker seems to be broken, it is objecting to worser and
wodnering.)
Post by Paul Epstein
Was I influenced by the other responses? No.
Why not? Because I couldn't understand Stick's response and Peter
never provided any evidence or argument to support his hypothesis.
Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-07-28 22:05:04 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Peter
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
After the roll, we will be 8 pips down in the pip-count
which is somewhat close. We do have to make adjustments
for the great wastage on our acepoint, but it does look like
running is easily our best plan. I don't think sitting back and
waiting for a shot is nearly as good.
Another thing to consider is that, if we run and O gets the closeout,
we are almost certain to save the gammon.
If we run and O picks and passes or closes us out, we will wish we did something else.
Any 1 except 51 and 61, 22/23/24, 33/34.
These are Oppy's excellent rolls. O is nearly a 60% favourite not to
roll any of these great numbers. Furthermore, even if O picks and passes,
we usually get an indirect shot and a chance at a good race with a quick
55.
20/13 is my semi-Walt.
Did I read the other responses? Yes.
Did I understand the other responses? No.
Why not? Because Stick used weird abbreviations like "TC".
Even worser: TCTC. I was wodnering about it myself.
(My spell checker seems to be broken, it is objecting to worser and
wodnering.)
Post by Paul Epstein
Was I influenced by the other responses? No.
Why not? Because I couldn't understand Stick's response and Peter
never provided any evidence or argument to support his hypothesis.
Paul
Peter and Paul may be a famous twosome but hardly the most industrious twosome.
If you simply google "TCTC backgammon", the answer is displayed.
It means "too close to call".

For example, imagine Mary, Bob and Joanna are sitting down together eating
cheese and tomato baguettes. Mary says, "After we've eaten, I think you should
take the car to the garage to get it checked." Bob says, "You know I'm too busy
with my exams!" Mary says, "I was actually asking Joanna." Bob replies, "Well,
how could I realise that? You didn't call her." Mary says "Well, that's because
we're all sitting together so calling is unnecessary. We're too close to call."

Paul
Peter
2020-07-28 22:20:02 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Peter
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
After the roll, we will be 8 pips down in the pip-count
which is somewhat close. We do have to make adjustments
for the great wastage on our acepoint, but it does look like
running is easily our best plan. I don't think sitting back and
waiting for a shot is nearly as good.
Another thing to consider is that, if we run and O gets the closeout,
we are almost certain to save the gammon.
If we run and O picks and passes or closes us out, we will wish we did something else.
Any 1 except 51 and 61, 22/23/24, 33/34.
These are Oppy's excellent rolls. O is nearly a 60% favourite not to
roll any of these great numbers. Furthermore, even if O picks and passes,
we usually get an indirect shot and a chance at a good race with a quick
55.
20/13 is my semi-Walt.
Did I read the other responses? Yes.
Did I understand the other responses? No.
Why not? Because Stick used weird abbreviations like "TC".
Even worser: TCTC. I was wodnering about it myself.
(My spell checker seems to be broken, it is objecting to worser and
wodnering.)
Post by Paul Epstein
Was I influenced by the other responses? No.
Why not? Because I couldn't understand Stick's response and Peter
never provided any evidence or argument to support his hypothesis.
Paul
Peter and Paul may be a famous twosome but hardly the most industrious twosome.
If you simply google "TCTC backgammon", the answer is displayed.
It means "too close to call".
For example, imagine Mary, Bob and Joanna are sitting down together eating
cheese and tomato baguettes. Mary says, "After we've eaten, I think you should
take the car to the garage to get it checked." Bob says, "You know I'm too busy
with my exams!" Mary says, "I was actually asking Joanna." Bob replies, "Well,
how could I realise that? You didn't call her." Mary says "Well, that's because
we're all sitting together so calling is unnecessary. We're too close to call."
That is a wholly reasonable use of the idiom. I have heard it most
often in connection with US elections when it seems to mean "unpredictable".
Post by Paul Epstein
Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-07-28 22:42:40 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Peter
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Peter
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
After the roll, we will be 8 pips down in the pip-count
which is somewhat close. We do have to make adjustments
for the great wastage on our acepoint, but it does look like
running is easily our best plan. I don't think sitting back and
waiting for a shot is nearly as good.
Another thing to consider is that, if we run and O gets the closeout,
we are almost certain to save the gammon.
If we run and O picks and passes or closes us out, we will wish we did something else.
Any 1 except 51 and 61, 22/23/24, 33/34.
These are Oppy's excellent rolls. O is nearly a 60% favourite not to
roll any of these great numbers. Furthermore, even if O picks and passes,
we usually get an indirect shot and a chance at a good race with a quick
55.
20/13 is my semi-Walt.
Did I read the other responses? Yes.
Did I understand the other responses? No.
Why not? Because Stick used weird abbreviations like "TC".
Even worser: TCTC. I was wodnering about it myself.
(My spell checker seems to be broken, it is objecting to worser and
wodnering.)
Post by Paul Epstein
Was I influenced by the other responses? No.
Why not? Because I couldn't understand Stick's response and Peter
never provided any evidence or argument to support his hypothesis.
Paul
Peter and Paul may be a famous twosome but hardly the most industrious twosome.
If you simply google "TCTC backgammon", the answer is displayed.
It means "too close to call".
For example, imagine Mary, Bob and Joanna are sitting down together eating
cheese and tomato baguettes. Mary says, "After we've eaten, I think you should
take the car to the garage to get it checked." Bob says, "You know I'm too busy
with my exams!" Mary says, "I was actually asking Joanna." Bob replies, "Well,
how could I realise that? You didn't call her." Mary says "Well, that's because
we're all sitting together so calling is unnecessary. We're too close to call."
That is a wholly reasonable use of the idiom. I have heard it most
often in connection with US elections when it seems to mean "unpredictable".
Post by Paul Epstein
Paul
Americans love the word "call" far more than the Brits do.
"That's a good call", "I called him out", "it's your call".
All these are heard far more in the US than in England.

Paul
Tim Chow
2020-07-31 15:47:39 UTC
Reply
Permalink
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

I would say that the general rule of thumb for this sort of position, where
both sides are on the verge of collapse except that you have an anchor, is
"don't break your board." You'd rather hit than be hit, of course, but you
also want your hits to be winners, which won't necessarily be true if you
break your board. Probably you'll have to break your anchor next time anyway,
under only marginally safer circumstances, and you'll be unhappy that your
board has weakened. If the race is somewhat close, which it often is in this
sort of position, breaking your board wastes pips in the race. And even if
you get attacked, the gammon risk is low.

But in this position, the stars have aligned. O has a five-point board yet
still has builders on three points ready to attack, so assuming you break
anchor next turn, O's position will be weaker than it is now. The roll is
a mediocre one from a racing standpoint, and you don't have the option of
running both back checkers. The rollout favors breaking the board.

In many variants, the decision would be easier. Of course if you had rolled
a 6 then you would be forced to run. If you had rolled 54 you would jump
both checkers out with 20/15 20/14. If the opponent's board were weaker,
you would probably run (see variant). If O had more checkers outside her
board, then you would be less reliant on hitting a shot and would be better
off aiming to win the race (and avoiding getting hit, by holding the anchor).

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.624
Player: 16.76% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 83.24% (G:1.30% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.628..-0.621) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/3 eq:-0.640 (-0.016)
Player: 16.01% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 83.99% (G:1.12% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.644..-0.637) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/2 eq:-0.656 (-0.032)
Player: 15.44% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 84.56% (G:1.35% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.660..-0.652) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1 3/1 eq:-0.671 (-0.047)
Player: 14.85% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 85.15% (G:1.29% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.674..-0.668) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:-0.673 (-0.049)
Player: 15.46% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 84.54% (G:2.49% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.676..-0.670) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBcbba-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 71 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.541
Player: 20.31% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.69% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.543..-0.540) - [93.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:-0.543 (-0.002)
Player: 20.36% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 79.64% (G:2.24% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.545..-0.542) - [6.6%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-08-01 11:03:04 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBbbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 68 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
I would say that the general rule of thumb for this sort of position, where
both sides are on the verge of collapse except that you have an anchor, is
"don't break your board." You'd rather hit than be hit, of course, but you
also want your hits to be winners, which won't necessarily be true if you
break your board. Probably you'll have to break your anchor next time anyway,
under only marginally safer circumstances, and you'll be unhappy that your
board has weakened. If the race is somewhat close, which it often is in this
sort of position, breaking your board wastes pips in the race. And even if
you get attacked, the gammon risk is low.
But in this position, the stars have aligned. O has a five-point board yet
still has builders on three points ready to attack, so assuming you break
anchor next turn, O's position will be weaker than it is now. The roll is
a mediocre one from a racing standpoint, and you don't have the option of
running both back checkers. The rollout favors breaking the board.
In many variants, the decision would be easier. Of course if you had rolled
a 6 then you would be forced to run. If you had rolled 54 you would jump
both checkers out with 20/15 20/14. If the opponent's board were weaker,
you would probably run (see variant). If O had more checkers outside her
board, then you would be less reliant on hitting a shot and would be better
off aiming to win the race (and avoiding getting hit, by holding the anchor).
1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.624
Player: 16.76% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 83.24% (G:1.30% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.628..-0.621) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/3 eq:-0.640 (-0.016)
Player: 16.01% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 83.99% (G:1.12% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.644..-0.637) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/2 eq:-0.656 (-0.032)
Player: 15.44% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 84.56% (G:1.35% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.660..-0.652) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 6/1 3/1 eq:-0.671 (-0.047)
Player: 14.85% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 85.15% (G:1.29% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.674..-0.668) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:-0.673 (-0.049)
Player: 15.46% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 84.54% (G:2.49% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.676..-0.670) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-CBBBBB----------bbcBcbba-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 83 O: 71 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.541
Player: 20.31% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.69% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.543..-0.540) - [93.4%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:-0.543 (-0.002)
Player: 20.36% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 79.64% (G:2.24% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.545..-0.542) - [6.6%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Generally speaking I'd disagree with that rule of thumb but there are too many variables to factor in to try to follow a rule of thumb. You'd have to hammer out specifically the scenarios.

Stick
Tim Chow
2020-08-01 15:36:08 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by b***@gmail.com
Generally speaking I'd disagree with that rule of thumb but there are too
many variables to factor in to try to follow a rule of thumb. You'd have
to hammer out specifically the scenarios.
I did say, "both sides are on the verge of collapse." This precludes, for
example, situations where X has run out of time but O hasn't.

I have studied this type of position a fair amount and I believe the rule is
pretty good. I certainly believe that in this restricted scenario, my
rule of thumb is more useful than the one you suggested. Number of builders
is useful in other situations, e.g., the type of position illustrated in
position #52 of "What's Your Game Plan?" (The comment in the book about
the difference between builders on 3 vs. 4 active points is due to me; it
wasn't something the authors mentioned in the first draft of their book.)

XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cddbbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61

1. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.450
Player: 25.23% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.77% (G:4.58% B:0.12%)

2. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.452 (-0.003)
Player: 25.20% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.80% (G:4.84% B:0.14%)

3. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.460 (-0.011)
Player: 25.13% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.87% (G:4.96% B:0.14%)

4. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.481 (-0.032)
Player: 24.14% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 75.86% (G:5.36% B:0.15%)

5. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.514 (-0.065)
Player: 22.20% (G:0.51% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 77.80% (G:3.82% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cdccbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61

1. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.531
Player: 21.56% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.44% (G:3.92% B:0.06%)

2. XG Roller++ 7/1 6/5 eq:-0.542 (-0.011)
Player: 21.17% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.83% (G:4.28% B:0.07%)

3. XG Roller++ 7/1 2/1 eq:-0.547 (-0.016)
Player: 21.08% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.92% (G:4.57% B:0.09%)

4. XG Roller++ 7/1 3/2 eq:-0.554 (-0.023)
Player: 20.93% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.07% (G:4.89% B:0.10%)

5. XG Roller++ 7/1 5/4 eq:-0.561 (-0.029)
Player: 20.57% (G:0.67% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.43% (G:4.87% B:0.09%)

6. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.561 (-0.030)
Player: 20.81% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.19% (G:5.46% B:0.16%)

7. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.562 (-0.030)
Player: 20.82% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.18% (G:5.49% B:0.15%)

8. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.579 (-0.047)
Player: 20.42% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.58% (G:6.15% B:0.19%)

9. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.604 (-0.072)
Player: 19.50% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.50% (G:6.47% B:0.20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-08-01 19:20:35 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
Post by b***@gmail.com
Generally speaking I'd disagree with that rule of thumb but there are too
many variables to factor in to try to follow a rule of thumb. You'd have
to hammer out specifically the scenarios.
I did say, "both sides are on the verge of collapse." This precludes, for
example, situations where X has run out of time but O hasn't.
I have studied this type of position a fair amount and I believe the rule is
pretty good. I certainly believe that in this restricted scenario, my
rule of thumb is more useful than the one you suggested. Number of builders
is useful in other situations, e.g., the type of position illustrated in
position #52 of "What's Your Game Plan?" (The comment in the book about
the difference between builders on 3 vs. 4 active points is due to me; it
wasn't something the authors mentioned in the first draft of their book.)
XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cddbbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.450
Player: 25.23% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.77% (G:4.58% B:0.12%)
2. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.452 (-0.003)
Player: 25.20% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.80% (G:4.84% B:0.14%)
3. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.460 (-0.011)
Player: 25.13% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.87% (G:4.96% B:0.14%)
4. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.481 (-0.032)
Player: 24.14% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 75.86% (G:5.36% B:0.15%)
5. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.514 (-0.065)
Player: 22.20% (G:0.51% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 77.80% (G:3.82% B:0.06%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cdccbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.531
Player: 21.56% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.44% (G:3.92% B:0.06%)
2. XG Roller++ 7/1 6/5 eq:-0.542 (-0.011)
Player: 21.17% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.83% (G:4.28% B:0.07%)
3. XG Roller++ 7/1 2/1 eq:-0.547 (-0.016)
Player: 21.08% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.92% (G:4.57% B:0.09%)
4. XG Roller++ 7/1 3/2 eq:-0.554 (-0.023)
Player: 20.93% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.07% (G:4.89% B:0.10%)
5. XG Roller++ 7/1 5/4 eq:-0.561 (-0.029)
Player: 20.57% (G:0.67% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.43% (G:4.87% B:0.09%)
6. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.561 (-0.030)
Player: 20.81% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.19% (G:5.46% B:0.16%)
7. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.562 (-0.030)
Player: 20.82% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.18% (G:5.49% B:0.15%)
8. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.579 (-0.047)
Player: 20.42% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.58% (G:6.15% B:0.19%)
9. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.604 (-0.072)
Player: 19.50% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.50% (G:6.47% B:0.20%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
MY rule of thumb has a lot more that goes with it too I just don't usually want to write a dissertation as a post.

Stick
Paul Epstein
2020-08-02 08:20:13 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by b***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
Post by b***@gmail.com
Generally speaking I'd disagree with that rule of thumb but there are too
many variables to factor in to try to follow a rule of thumb. You'd have
to hammer out specifically the scenarios.
I did say, "both sides are on the verge of collapse." This precludes, for
example, situations where X has run out of time but O hasn't.
I have studied this type of position a fair amount and I believe the rule is
pretty good. I certainly believe that in this restricted scenario, my
rule of thumb is more useful than the one you suggested. Number of builders
is useful in other situations, e.g., the type of position illustrated in
position #52 of "What's Your Game Plan?" (The comment in the book about
the difference between builders on 3 vs. 4 active points is due to me; it
wasn't something the authors mentioned in the first draft of their book.)
XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cddbbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.450
Player: 25.23% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.77% (G:4.58% B:0.12%)
2. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.452 (-0.003)
Player: 25.20% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.80% (G:4.84% B:0.14%)
3. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.460 (-0.011)
Player: 25.13% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.87% (G:4.96% B:0.14%)
4. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.481 (-0.032)
Player: 24.14% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 75.86% (G:5.36% B:0.15%)
5. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.514 (-0.065)
Player: 22.20% (G:0.51% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 77.80% (G:3.82% B:0.06%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cdccbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.531
Player: 21.56% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.44% (G:3.92% B:0.06%)
2. XG Roller++ 7/1 6/5 eq:-0.542 (-0.011)
Player: 21.17% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.83% (G:4.28% B:0.07%)
3. XG Roller++ 7/1 2/1 eq:-0.547 (-0.016)
Player: 21.08% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.92% (G:4.57% B:0.09%)
4. XG Roller++ 7/1 3/2 eq:-0.554 (-0.023)
Player: 20.93% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.07% (G:4.89% B:0.10%)
5. XG Roller++ 7/1 5/4 eq:-0.561 (-0.029)
Player: 20.57% (G:0.67% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.43% (G:4.87% B:0.09%)
6. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.561 (-0.030)
Player: 20.81% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.19% (G:5.46% B:0.16%)
7. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.562 (-0.030)
Player: 20.82% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.18% (G:5.49% B:0.15%)
8. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.579 (-0.047)
Player: 20.42% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.58% (G:6.15% B:0.19%)
9. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.604 (-0.072)
Player: 19.50% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.50% (G:6.47% B:0.20%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
MY rule of thumb has a lot more that goes with it too I just don't usually want to write a dissertation as a post.
Stick
As a compromise, maybe you could write a book and link to it here? I googled for books by you but didn't see any.

Also, another bon mot I encountered is "he was a pool shark (where the nickname “Stick” stuck to him)"

However, the version I heard was that you got the name from working in a
pool hall which is slightly different. However, they are related and both
may be true.

Paul
b***@gmail.com
2020-08-02 21:39:47 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by b***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
Post by b***@gmail.com
Generally speaking I'd disagree with that rule of thumb but there are too
many variables to factor in to try to follow a rule of thumb. You'd have
to hammer out specifically the scenarios.
I did say, "both sides are on the verge of collapse." This precludes, for
example, situations where X has run out of time but O hasn't.
I have studied this type of position a fair amount and I believe the rule is
pretty good. I certainly believe that in this restricted scenario, my
rule of thumb is more useful than the one you suggested. Number of builders
is useful in other situations, e.g., the type of position illustrated in
position #52 of "What's Your Game Plan?" (The comment in the book about
the difference between builders on 3 vs. 4 active points is due to me; it
wasn't something the authors mentioned in the first draft of their book.)
XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cddbbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.450
Player: 25.23% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.77% (G:4.58% B:0.12%)
2. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.452 (-0.003)
Player: 25.20% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.80% (G:4.84% B:0.14%)
3. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.460 (-0.011)
Player: 25.13% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 74.87% (G:4.96% B:0.14%)
4. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.481 (-0.032)
Player: 24.14% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 75.86% (G:5.36% B:0.15%)
5. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.514 (-0.065)
Player: 22.20% (G:0.51% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 77.80% (G:3.82% B:0.06%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-ABBCBBA---------cdccbB---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 7/1 4/3 eq:-0.531
Player: 21.56% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.44% (G:3.92% B:0.06%)
2. XG Roller++ 7/1 6/5 eq:-0.542 (-0.011)
Player: 21.17% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.83% (G:4.28% B:0.07%)
3. XG Roller++ 7/1 2/1 eq:-0.547 (-0.016)
Player: 21.08% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 78.92% (G:4.57% B:0.09%)
4. XG Roller++ 7/1 3/2 eq:-0.554 (-0.023)
Player: 20.93% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.07% (G:4.89% B:0.10%)
5. XG Roller++ 7/1 5/4 eq:-0.561 (-0.029)
Player: 20.57% (G:0.67% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 79.43% (G:4.87% B:0.09%)
6. XG Roller++ 22/15 eq:-0.561 (-0.030)
Player: 20.81% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.19% (G:5.46% B:0.16%)
7. XG Roller++ 22/16 7/6 eq:-0.562 (-0.030)
Player: 20.82% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.18% (G:5.49% B:0.15%)
8. XG Roller++ 22/16 4/3 eq:-0.579 (-0.047)
Player: 20.42% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.58% (G:6.15% B:0.19%)
9. XG Roller++ 22/16 2/1 eq:-0.604 (-0.072)
Player: 19.50% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.50% (G:6.47% B:0.20%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
MY rule of thumb has a lot more that goes with it too I just don't usually want to write a dissertation as a post.
Stick
As a compromise, maybe you could write a book and link to it here? I googled for books by you but didn't see any.
Also, another bon mot I encountered is "he was a pool shark (where the nickname “Stick” stuck to him)"
However, the version I heard was that you got the name from working in a
pool hall which is slightly different. However, they are related and both
may be true.
Paul
There are no books by me that I'm aware of though I didn't Google it.

The only version I've ever told is that I worked in a pool hall. My prowess remains unknown.

Stick

Loading...