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Tim Chow
2020-07-16 03:33:55 UTC
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XGID=-BBBBAB-------b--cBc-B-cd-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 74 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow
Peter
2020-07-16 05:31:55 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BBBBAB-------b--cBc-B-cd-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 74 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65
---
Tim Chow
21/10
Tim Chow
2020-07-19 01:34:05 UTC
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XGID=-BBBBAB-------b--cBc-B-cd-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 74 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Rather than comment on this play, let me present the rollout, as well as
a variant, and invite others to comment.

1. Rollout¹ 21/10 eq:-0.548
Player: 35.71% (G:3.68% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 64.29% (G:5.88% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.556..-0.539) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/7 eq:-0.625 (-0.078)
Player: 34.22% (G:3.54% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 65.78% (G:5.76% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.634..-0.616) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/13 18/12 eq:-0.684 (-0.136)
Player: 31.60% (G:2.35% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 68.40% (G:2.44% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.691..-0.677) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBBBAB-------b--cBc--Bcd-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 74 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 18/7 eq:-0.345
Player: 41.95% (G:4.14% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 58.05% (G:5.27% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.354..-0.336) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/11 eq:-0.384 (-0.040)
Player: 40.93% (G:4.85% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 59.07% (G:6.69% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.393..-0.375) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/13 18/12 eq:-0.395 (-0.050)
Player: 40.04% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 59.96% (G:2.41% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.403..-0.386) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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