Where do you put your blot?

Timothy Chow

2024-02-04 16:48:29 UTC

XGID=---BBaBbBC-C--bAa-abaabb--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X O | | X X X |
| X X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

It might seem that X doesn't have to worry too much about getting hit
because O has two blots in her board. But leaving a blot on the 15pt
gives O quite a few hit-and-cover numbers. Moving the checker on the
15pt is safer because O is much more reluctant to break her anchor to
hit than to break her 11pt to hit.

1. Rollout¹ 15/12 eq:+0.123
Player: 60.97% (G:10.40% B:1.35%)
Opponent: 39.03% (G:7.99% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.115..+0.130) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/13 9/8 eq:+0.086 (-0.036)
Player: 59.73% (G:10.90% B:1.32%)
Opponent: 40.27% (G:8.33% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.079..+0.094) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/6 eq:+0.020 (-0.103)
Player: 57.41% (G:8.86% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 42.59% (G:8.31% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.013..+0.027) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/8 eq:+0.008 (-0.115)
Player: 57.27% (G:7.90% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 42.73% (G:8.39% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.001..+0.014) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/5* eq:-0.009 (-0.131)
Player: 56.16% (G:17.91% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 43.84% (G:20.46% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.018..+0.001) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow