Discussion:
Break something (followup)
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Tim Chow
2020-07-19 01:35:45 UTC
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Note that I've changed the score to DMP.


XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-07-19 08:35:22 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
Note that I've changed the score to DMP.
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
The Dixie Chicks or simply The Chicks as they've recently changed their name to.

Stick
Paul Epstein
2020-07-19 08:52:38 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
Note that I've changed the score to DMP.
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
18/15 2/1 -- no analysis or confidence score given this time, though.
I'm not sure how or if the play varies at different scores.

Paul
Peter
2020-07-19 10:20:49 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
Note that I've changed the score to DMP.
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
2/1 18/15
Peter
2020-07-19 10:22:54 UTC
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Post by Peter
Post by Tim Chow
Note that I've changed the score to DMP.
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
  |    O        O  X |   | O     X  O  O  O |
  |    O        O  X |   | O     X        O |
  |             O    |   | O              O |
  |                  |   | O              O |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |BAR|                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X    |
  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 119  O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
2/1 18/15
Actually, 18/15 21/20 is also eminently playable.
Paul Epstein
2020-07-19 15:14:29 UTC
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Post by Peter
Post by Peter
Post by Tim Chow
Note that I've changed the score to DMP.
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
  |    O        O  X |   | O     X  O  O  O |
  |    O        O  X |   | O     X        O |
  |             O    |   | O              O |
  |                  |   | O              O |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |BAR|                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X    |
  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 119  O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
2/1 18/15
Actually, 18/15 21/20 is also eminently playable.
So your decision is?
Peter
2020-07-20 05:35:17 UTC
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Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Peter
Post by Peter
Post by Tim Chow
Note that I've changed the score to DMP.
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
  |    O        O  X |   | O     X  O  O  O |
  |    O        O  X |   | O     X        O |
  |             O    |   | O              O |
  |                  |   | O              O |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |BAR|                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X    |
  |                  |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 119  O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
---
Tim Chow
2/1 18/15
Actually, 18/15 21/20 is also eminently playable.
So your decision is?
Paul
My decision is to sit on the fence.
Tim Chow
2020-07-21 03:07:06 UTC
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XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31

X's huge board advantage allows a super-blotty play.

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 18/15 eq:-0.332
Player: 33.39% (G:4.10% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 66.61% (G:14.56% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.336..-0.328) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/15 2/1 eq:-0.361 (-0.028)
Player: 31.97% (G:3.13% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.03% (G:9.86% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.364..-0.357) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/20 4/1 eq:-0.363 (-0.030)
Player: 31.87% (G:2.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 68.13% (G:13.20% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.367..-0.359) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 5/1 eq:-0.366 (-0.034)
Player: 31.69% (G:3.20% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 68.31% (G:10.73% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.370..-0.362) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 18/15 2/1 eq:-0.329
Player: 31.36% (G:3.50% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 68.64% (G:6.52% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.335..-0.324) - [98.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/20 18/15 eq:-0.339 (-0.010)
Player: 32.83% (G:4.98% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 67.17% (G:11.56% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.346..-0.332) - [1.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 5/1 eq:-0.350 (-0.021)
Player: 30.88% (G:3.28% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 69.12% (G:7.74% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.356..-0.343) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/20 4/1 eq:-0.372 (-0.043)
Player: 31.44% (G:4.08% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 68.56% (G:12.74% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.378..-0.366) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-07-21 09:26:37 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 31
X's huge board advantage allows a super-blotty play.
1. Rollout¹ 21/20 18/15 eq:-0.332
Player: 33.39% (G:4.10% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 66.61% (G:14.56% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.336..-0.328) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/15 2/1 eq:-0.361 (-0.028)
Player: 31.97% (G:3.13% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.03% (G:9.86% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.364..-0.357) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 4/1 eq:-0.363 (-0.030)
Player: 31.87% (G:2.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 68.13% (G:13.20% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.367..-0.359) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 5/1 eq:-0.366 (-0.034)
Player: 31.69% (G:3.20% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 68.31% (G:10.73% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.370..-0.362) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
-----
Money
-----
XGID=-ABBBBB-------b--cBd-Baad-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O O O |
| O O X | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31
1. Rollout¹ 18/15 2/1 eq:-0.329
Player: 31.36% (G:3.50% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 68.64% (G:6.52% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.335..-0.324) - [98.2%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 18/15 eq:-0.339 (-0.010)
Player: 32.83% (G:4.98% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 67.17% (G:11.56% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.346..-0.332) - [1.8%]
3. Rollout¹ 5/1 eq:-0.350 (-0.021)
Player: 30.88% (G:3.28% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 69.12% (G:7.74% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.356..-0.343) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 21/20 4/1 eq:-0.372 (-0.043)
Player: 31.44% (G:4.08% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 68.56% (G:12.74% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.378..-0.366) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
As I said,


Stick

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