Discussion:
2pt holding game
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Tim Chow
2020-06-21 17:08:28 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-BcBBBB--A--bC-A-b-b-cab--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-21 19:00:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BcBBBB--A--bC-A-b-b-cab--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
O would love to escape a checker so we need to stop that.
I'll make the 8 point. Obviously being hit is not a problem at all.
I'm not even sure O hits if given the chance.
How confident am I? Somewhat confident.

I think my play is correct iff Carlsen retains his title in his next
World Championship match.

Either I'm wrong and Carlsen will lose his title or I'm right and Carlsen
will retain his title.

Paul
Tim Chow
2020-06-23 14:09:36 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-BcBBBB--A--bC-A-b-b-cab--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

Often the strategy in these types of games is to just try
to bring everything home safely, and not create points
that are difficult to clear. However, here O has a blot in
her board, and the timing is such that blocking O's sixes
has some value. XG makes the 8pt.

In the variant, I have covered O's blot, and the rollout
slightly favors the safe 15/9.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/8 eq:+0.743
Player: 81.87% (G:18.59% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 18.13% (G:1.93% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.737..+0.748) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/9 eq:+0.694 (-0.049)
Player: 80.87% (G:15.81% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 19.13% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.688..+0.700) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BcBBBB--A--bC-A-b-b-bbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| X | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 15/9 eq:+0.665
Player: 79.68% (G:15.44% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 20.32% (G:1.80% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.660..+0.671) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/8 eq:+0.652 (-0.013)
Player: 78.41% (G:18.87% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 21.59% (G:3.55% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.646..+0.658) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-06-25 22:01:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-BcBBBB--A--bC-A-b-b-cab--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
Often the strategy in these types of games is to just try
to bring everything home safely, and not create points
that are difficult to clear. However, here O has a blot in
her board, and the timing is such that blocking O's sixes
has some value. XG makes the 8pt.
In the variant, I have covered O's blot, and the rollout
slightly favors the safe 15/9.
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/8 eq:+0.743
Player: 81.87% (G:18.59% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 18.13% (G:1.93% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.737..+0.748) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 15/9 eq:+0.694 (-0.049)
Player: 80.87% (G:15.81% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 19.13% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.688..+0.700) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-BcBBBB--A--bC-A-b-b-bbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| X | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | O |
| O | | X X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 15/9 eq:+0.665
Player: 79.68% (G:15.44% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 20.32% (G:1.80% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.660..+0.671) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/8 eq:+0.652 (-0.013)
Player: 78.41% (G:18.87% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 21.59% (G:3.55% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.646..+0.658) - [0.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
The 8pt also is not a 'difficult point to clear'. For example swing the blot around to the 11pt, put the other blot on the 8pt, and give yourself a [41] to play. Now you have the option of making either the 8pt or the 7pt. You clearly make the 8pt because it does much better in clearing against the 23pt anchor. (XGID=-BcBBBB-A--AbC---b-b-cab--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10)

Stick

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