Discussion:
Deuce-point game
Add Reply
Tim Chow
2020-07-14 02:36:46 UTC
Reply
Permalink
XGID=--bBBEDB----b----bbcbb----:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-07-14 10:13:17 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--bBBEDB----b----bbcbb----:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
Clearly, safety is paramount. However, if the issue
appears close, there should be a strong bias in favour
of removing checkers. Quite often people take lots of
checkers off, then get hit, and then find that they have
made enough removals to be doing well in the race even post-hit.

The candidates are 7/3(2) 5/1(2)
and 7/3(2) 4/off(2).
I don't think there are shot leavers with either play.
If we don't take any off, we can get into trouble later.
I don't think the strippedness of the non-removal play is
markedly better than the gap after the removal play.

7/3(2) 4/off(2) with 80% confidence.

Paul
Peter
2020-07-14 10:54:52 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--bBBEDB----b----bbcbb----:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
Off-knock two.
Tim Chow
2020-07-17 03:40:29 UTC
Reply
Permalink
XGID=--bBBEDB----b----bbcbb----:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

Leaving a gap is usually a recipe for long-term blotting risk, but as Paul
points out, by the time X leaves a blot, he'll probably have borne off most
of his checkers. According to the rollout, both plays have about the same
winning chances. Of course 4/off(2) wins more gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3(2) 4/Off(2) eq:+0.964
Player: 84.62% (G:32.67% B:1.44%)
Opponent: 15.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.958..+0.971) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3(2) 5/1(2) eq:+0.905 (-0.060)
Player: 84.50% (G:27.27% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 15.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.900..+0.910) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Loading...