Discussion:
31 to play
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Tim Chow
2020-06-11 01:43:35 UTC
Permalink
XGID=--A--aECB------c--BcAbdAb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O X O O X O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 90 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

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Tim Chow
Tim Chow
2020-06-14 04:01:39 UTC
Permalink
XGID=--A--aECB------c--BcAbdAb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O X O O X O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 90 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

I played 6/5*/2 here, because I liked hitting but I didn't like leaving
two blots in my home board when outboarded. XG approves of the hit but
says I should just anchor and not worry about the blots.

1. Rollout¹ 23/20 6/5* eq:-0.398
Player: 35.19% (G:5.54% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 64.81% (G:30.85% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.409..-0.386) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/20 2/1 eq:-0.448 (-0.051)
Player: 28.51% (G:3.61% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 71.49% (G:16.74% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.456..-0.440) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/20 7/6 eq:-0.471 (-0.074)
Player: 27.58% (G:3.65% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 72.42% (G:16.39% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.479..-0.463) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/5* 5/2 eq:-0.518 (-0.121)
Player: 30.85% (G:5.47% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 69.15% (G:31.04% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.527..-0.510) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-14 07:15:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--A--aECB------c--BcAbdAb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O X O O X O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 90 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31
I definitely would have (correctly) anchored with 23/20.
I couldn't decide on the ace, hence my non-posting.

Paul

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