Discussion:
Checker play at 3-away/2-away
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Tim Chow
2020-07-31 15:48:52 UTC
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XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:3:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-1/3
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow
Peter
2020-07-31 17:58:25 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:3:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-1/3
Cube: 1
X to play 33
---
Tim Chow
I am undecided. Hit the blot or stack 'em all on 10?
Tim Chow
2020-08-01 15:41:20 UTC
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Post by Peter
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:3:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-1/3
Cube: 1
X to play 33
---
Tim Chow
I am undecided. Hit the blot or stack 'em all on 10?
You can compromise. 13/10(3) 4/1*.

---
Tim Chow
Peter
2020-08-02 13:04:14 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
Post by Peter
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:3:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-1/3
Cube: 1
X to play 33
---
Tim Chow
I am undecided. Hit the blot or stack 'em all on 10?
You can compromise. 13/10(3) 4/1*.
:-)
Post by Tim Chow
---
Tim Chow
Tim Chow
2020-08-02 14:12:24 UTC
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XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:3:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-1/3
Cube: 1
X to play 33

Switching points is certainly more gammonish, and typically the trailer in
a match is eager to win a gammon. However, here the cube is centered, and
if X switches points and O dances, then X hugely overshoots his market; if
O enters, X will still double, but his cube won't be particularly efficient.
On the other hand, if X plays 13/10(4), then he has a pretty efficient cube
after almost any response by O.

If X switches points with 4/1*(2), then there's still a question of how to
play the two remaining 2's. If the cube were already turned, then XG says
that 8/5(2) and 13/10(2) are close; however, with the cube centered, XG
strongly prefers 13/10(2) (although it prefers 13/10(4) over either point-
switching play). The magnitude of the difference surprises me, but once
again, the explanation is that the extra 7 dancing rolls afforded by 8/5(2)
don't gain X that much since he overshoots his market.

Among the quiet plays, 13/10(2) 8/5(2) might seem more natural than 13/10(4).
Just make the 5pt, right? However, 13/10(2) 8/5(2) leaves X almost totally
stripped, while 13/10(4) leaves X much more flexible.

For comparison I've rolled out the position for money, where X's upcoming
cube isn't as efficient.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10(4) eq:+0.965
Player: 66.94% (G:12.95% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 33.06% (G:5.27% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.952..+0.977) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 4/1*(2) eq:+0.882 (-0.082)
Player: 64.67% (G:18.86% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 35.33% (G:7.93% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.871..+0.894) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.826 (-0.138)
Player: 64.14% (G:13.42% B:0.89%)
Opponent: 35.86% (G:6.12% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.814..+0.839) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 4/1*(2) eq:+0.777 (-0.188)
Player: 62.65% (G:20.65% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 37.35% (G:7.93% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.767..+0.786) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 4/1*(2) eq:+0.636
Player: 65.04% (G:19.36% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 34.96% (G:8.41% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.629..+0.644) - [78.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10(4) eq:+0.633 (-0.004)
Player: 66.49% (G:13.45% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 33.51% (G:6.01% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.627..+0.639) - [22.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 4/1*(2) eq:+0.584 (-0.052)
Player: 62.94% (G:20.64% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 37.06% (G:8.80% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.576..+0.592) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.521 (-0.116)
Player: 64.46% (G:12.49% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 35.54% (G:6.19% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.508..+0.534) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
c***@gmail.com
2020-08-02 14:55:22 UTC
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Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-BB-CbB---bD-B-c-cca----:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:3:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 147 X-O: 0-1/3
Cube: 1
X to play 33
---
Tim Chow
8-5(2), 4-1(2)

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