Discussion:
5-away/2-away containment play
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2020-06-12 03:51:52 UTC
Permalink
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:2:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-12 12:02:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:2:5:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
I'll point on the 4 point checker.
This is the natural and obvious play anyway, and
the desire for gammons makes it even more attractive.
Although Tim sometimes talks about "anti-QF", he hasn't
produced an anti-QF quiz in a long while.
So what is my confidence level?
As confident as a beginning maths grad student feels
in an algebraic geometry seminar.

Massively lacking in confidence and anticipating a rebuke for
my crass naivety.

Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-06-12 12:05:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:2:5:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
I'll point on the 4 point checker.
This is the natural and obvious play anyway, and
the desire for gammons makes it even more attractive.
Although Tim sometimes talks about "anti-QF", he hasn't
produced an anti-QF quiz in a long while.
So what is my confidence level?
As confident as a beginning maths grad student feels
in an algebraic geometry seminar.
Massively lacking in confidence and anticipating a rebuke for
my crass naivety.
Ok, I see the issue now. I was confused between the score and the roll.
I thought that 52 was the roll (rather than the score).
I'll think it through again and come up with a better wrong answer.
Ever tried.
Ever failed.
No matter.
Try again.
Fail again.
Fail better.

Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-06-12 14:04:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:2:5:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
Any candidate play will A) hit O and B) make another point.
A key point for the weaker players, though, is that it's
not necessarily the case that the point made is the
one on which O stands.

So my candidate plays are 9/7 8/4* 6/4
8/6 8/4* 6/4
6/4*/2 5/3(2)

The first play leaves eight shots, which seems unnecessary.
The second play leads to likely bearin difficulties if O enters
on the 3 point.

So 6/4*/2 5/3(2) is correct and note that it leaves zero shots.

It's a problem that is strongly reminiscent of the debate among the
Republican presidential contenders in 2016.
No one seemed au fait with the list of contenders, leading to thorough confusion.

In other words, with both the presidential debate and this problem, the only
issue is that you must:
***** list the candidates correctly *****



Paul
Tim Chow
2020-06-18 15:45:55 UTC
Permalink
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:2:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

I played 8/4*(2), which is what XG plays at DMP, but it tells me that ATS
I should be trying for more gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 5/3 eq:+0.676
Player: 77.01% (G:9.58% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 22.99% (G:3.21% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.672..+0.680) - [52.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 5/3(2) eq:+0.676
Player: 76.75% (G:9.93% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 23.25% (G:2.53% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.673..+0.679) - [47.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/4* 5/3(3) eq:+0.664 (-0.012)
Player: 76.70% (G:9.19% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 23.30% (G:1.25% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.661..+0.668) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4*(2) eq:+0.630 (-0.046)
Player: 77.54% (G:5.60% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 22.46% (G:0.78% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.626..+0.633) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 9/7 6/4* 5/3(2) eq:+0.616 (-0.060)
Player: 74.16% (G:9.40% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 25.84% (G:4.15% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.613..+0.620) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 6/4* 5/3(2) 4/2 eq:+0.592 (-0.084)
Player: 76.19% (G:4.82% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 23.81% (G:0.75% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.589..+0.595) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


-----
Money
-----

XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 5/3(2) eq:+0.546
Player: 76.99% (G:9.51% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 23.01% (G:1.57% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.541..+0.551) - [57.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 5/3 eq:+0.546 (-0.001)
Player: 77.26% (G:9.14% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 22.74% (G:1.97% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.539..+0.552) - [42.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/4* 5/3(3) eq:+0.539 (-0.007)
Player: 77.00% (G:8.58% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 23.00% (G:1.04% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.534..+0.543) - [0.4%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4*(2) eq:+0.525 (-0.022)
Player: 77.81% (G:4.70% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 22.19% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.520..+0.529) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-06-18 23:00:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:2:5:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 2-5/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
I played 8/4*(2), which is what XG plays at DMP, but it tells me that ATS
I should be trying for more gammons.
1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 5/3 eq:+0.676
Player: 77.01% (G:9.58% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 22.99% (G:3.21% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.672..+0.680) - [52.3%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 5/3(2) eq:+0.676
Player: 76.75% (G:9.93% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 23.25% (G:2.53% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.673..+0.679) - [47.7%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/4* 5/3(3) eq:+0.664 (-0.012)
Player: 76.70% (G:9.19% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 23.30% (G:1.25% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.661..+0.668) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/4*(2) eq:+0.630 (-0.046)
Player: 77.54% (G:5.60% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 22.46% (G:0.78% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.626..+0.633) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 9/7 6/4* 5/3(2) eq:+0.616 (-0.060)
Player: 74.16% (G:9.40% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 25.84% (G:4.15% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.613..+0.620) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ 6/4* 5/3(2) 4/2 eq:+0.592 (-0.084)
Player: 76.19% (G:4.82% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 23.81% (G:0.75% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.589..+0.595) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
-----
Money
-----
XGID=--B-aFC-BB-a----------gdb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22
1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 5/3(2) eq:+0.546
Player: 76.99% (G:9.51% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 23.01% (G:1.57% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.541..+0.551) - [57.3%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 5/3 eq:+0.546 (-0.001)
Player: 77.26% (G:9.14% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 22.74% (G:1.97% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.539..+0.552) - [42.3%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/4* 5/3(3) eq:+0.539 (-0.007)
Player: 77.00% (G:8.58% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 23.00% (G:1.04% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.534..+0.543) - [0.4%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/4*(2) eq:+0.525 (-0.022)
Player: 77.81% (G:4.70% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 22.19% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.520..+0.529) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Yes, at dmp 8/4*(2) is ahead of the three other top three plays by .010 or less.

Stick

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