XGID=-aB--AD-BB-a----bc-dC-dA--:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 66
X is still behind in the race after this roll, so I thought I should
keep the anchor with 20/8 9/3(2). But XG says we should abandon the
anchor with 20/14(2) 20/8. In part, I think that this is because
doing so puts some pressure on O's outfield blot; see the variant.
1. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 20/8 eq:-0.312
Player: 42.59% (G:8.95% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 57.41% (G:16.85% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.325..-0.299) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 9/3(2) eq:-0.371 (-0.059)
Player: 41.28% (G:11.00% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 58.72% (G:20.83% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.382..-0.360) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 20/8 9/3(2) eq:-0.429 (-0.117)
Player: 38.21% (G:8.32% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 61.79% (G:11.04% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.441..-0.417) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-bB--AD-BB------bc-dC-dA--:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 66
1. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 20/8 eq:+0.024
Player: 51.31% (G:14.58% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 48.69% (G:15.99% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.017..+0.031) - [99.8%]
2. Rollout¹ 20/8 9/3(2) eq:+0.011 (-0.013)
Player: 49.37% (G:15.02% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 50.63% (G:10.96% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.017) - [0.2%]
3. Rollout² 20/14(2) 9/3(2) eq:-0.079 (-0.104)
Player: 49.13% (G:16.95% B:1.04%)
Opponent: 50.87% (G:20.20% B:1.06%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.094..-0.065) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow