XGID=--A-CbD-E---b-----bcbbb-B-:1:1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| O | | O O O O X |

| O | | O O O O X |

| | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| X | | |

| X | | X |

| X | | X X | +---+

| O X | | X O X | | 2 |

| O X | | X O X X | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 126 O: 122 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube

X to play 51

OTB, I suggested that we play 8/3 4/3. Someone else on the team suggested

24/23 8/3 instead. We both agreed that 24/23 8/3 would lose more gammons.

I said that it wasn't even clear to me that 24/23 8/3 would win more often,

but my teammate was convinced that 24/23 8/3 would win more often. The

captain listened to all the debate with interest, and finally decided to

play 24/23 8/3.

Question: Did the captain follow Stick's rule? He had never heard of Stick,

let alone Stick's DMP rule, but if he had, he might have thought that he

was following it. He evidently felt that the DMP play was clear. (And as

it turns out, the computer agrees.) He couldn't assess the win/gammon

tradeoff, so he applied the principle: When the DMP play is clear, make it.

But 24/23 8/3 isn't the bot play, so it follows that the captain *did not*

follow Stick's DMP rule, since Stick's DMP rule is infallible. As Stick

points out, this position falls into the category of obvious exceptions.

Shame on us for failing to follow Stick's DMP rule.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 4/3 eq:-0.933

Player: 10.11% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)

Opponent: 89.89% (G:17.08% B:0.57%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.935..-0.930) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.942 (-0.009)

Player: 9.40% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)

Opponent: 90.60% (G:16.21% B:0.61%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.944..-0.940) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/1 2/1 eq:-0.944 (-0.011)

Player: 9.56% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)

Opponent: 90.44% (G:16.62% B:0.59%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.946..-0.942) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.946 (-0.014)

Player: 9.43% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)

Opponent: 90.57% (G:16.62% B:0.53%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.949..-0.944) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/3 eq:-0.951 (-0.018)

Player: 9.27% (G:0.73% B:0.02%)

Opponent: 90.73% (G:16.80% B:0.66%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.953..-0.949) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.985 (-0.053)

Player: 9.63% (G:0.84% B:0.03%)

Opponent: 90.37% (G:20.95% B:1.15%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.988..-0.983) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/1 eq:-1.006 (-0.074)

Player: 9.09% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)

Opponent: 90.91% (G:21.45% B:1.19%)

Confidence: ±0.002 (-1.009..-1.004) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/3 eq:-1.061 (-0.128)

Player: 14.80% (G:2.92% B:0.13%)

Opponent: 85.20% (G:41.67% B:2.34%)

Confidence: ±0.003 (-1.064..-1.058) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---

DMP

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XGID=--A-CbD-E---b-----bcbbb-B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| O | | O O O O X |

| O | | O O O O X |

| | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| X | | |

| X | | X |

| X | | X X |

| O X | | X O X |

| O X | | X O X X |

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 126 O: 122 X-O: 0-0/1

Cube: 1

X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/3 eq:-0.740

Player: 13.02% (G:2.50% B:0.14%)

Opponent: 86.98% (G:30.34% B:2.21%)

Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.743..-0.736) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/1 eq:-0.751 (-0.011)

Player: 12.46% (G:2.10% B:0.03%)

Opponent: 87.54% (G:31.61% B:2.29%)

Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.754..-0.748) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/3 4/3 eq:-0.792 (-0.052)

Player: 10.40% (G:1.44% B:0.03%)

Opponent: 89.60% (G:20.10% B:1.61%)

Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.795..-0.789) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

Tim Chow