Discussion:
Just make the...
Add Reply
Tim Chow
2020-07-26 16:27:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-07-26 16:55:28 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
It's another Stick/Tim DMP debate.
I'll make the 5 point which is of course the obvious play.
Why did Tim pose the quiz then?
Well, I certainly wouldn't make the 5 point at DMP because
it's mainly motivated by the extra gammons.
O's main winning chances are to attack our rear checker so extract
the rear checker at DMP.
With a turned cube, and Oppy on the bar, it's absolutely thematic
and clear to make the strongest 5 point board possible.
So make the 5 point.

If O had a stronger board, we might escape.
If we were at DMP, we _would_ escape.
"If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no need for tinkers."

Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-07-26 16:59:54 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
It's another Stick/Tim DMP debate.
I'll make the 5 point which is of course the obvious play.
Why did Tim pose the quiz then?
Well, I certainly wouldn't make the 5 point at DMP because
it's mainly motivated by the extra gammons.
O's main winning chances are to attack our rear checker so extract
the rear checker at DMP.
With a turned cube, and Oppy on the bar, it's absolutely thematic
and clear to make the strongest 5 point board possible.
So make the 5 point.
If O had a stronger board, we might escape.
If we were at DMP, we _would_ escape.
"If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no need for tinkers."
Paul
Note also that making the 5 point works well for diversification.
5's and 3's hit the ace point, and 4's prepare to escape.
Another point is that it might not leave any shots because I'm not sure
Oppy hits with a 61.

Paul
b***@gmail.com
2020-07-27 10:49:31 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
It's another Stick/Tim DMP debate.
I'll make the 5 point which is of course the obvious play.
Why did Tim pose the quiz then?
Well, I certainly wouldn't make the 5 point at DMP because
it's mainly motivated by the extra gammons.
O's main winning chances are to attack our rear checker so extract
the rear checker at DMP.
With a turned cube, and Oppy on the bar, it's absolutely thematic
and clear to make the strongest 5 point board possible.
So make the 5 point.
If O had a stronger board, we might escape.
If we were at DMP, we _would_ escape.
"If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no need for tinkers."
Paul
The difference between the plays at dmp is .015. Rule mainly shouldn't apply.

Stick
Peter
2020-07-26 17:58:14 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
... 5pt.
Michael
2020-07-29 10:48:46 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
I don't know why Stick said the DMP rule shouldn't apply here.
What does the DMP rule say on the first place? It says this:
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.games.backgammon/AWpRU3PJcrI/UsHbZa_ICAAJ
So is the DMP really obvious? Paul said it is to him, but to be honest it's not obvious to me. It looks to me making the 5 point increases both single wns and gammon wins.
Anyway I will make the 5 point, still wondering what's so great about the DMP(must include 24/20 no?) which makes it only 0.015 off.
Paul Epstein
2020-07-29 12:28:47 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Michael
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow
I don't know why Stick said the DMP rule shouldn't apply here.
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.games.backgammon/AWpRU3PJcrI/UsHbZa_ICAAJ
So is the DMP really obvious? Paul said it is to him, but to be honest it's not obvious to me. It looks to me making the 5 point increases both single wns and gammon wins.
Anyway I will make the 5 point, still wondering what's so great about the DMP(must include 24/20 no?) which makes it only 0.015 off.
I'm using "obvious" in the psychological sense. Some things seem very clear
and not to need explanation. So there is a psychological feeling of "knowing"
something. But that's only how it appears in the mind. Many "obvious" things
are wrong. Here are some things that are wrong/false etc. but that often
appear "obvious" despite being wrong.

In a room with fewer than 25 random people, the probability that at least two
of them share a birthday must be less than 50%.

If a pair of twins are identical, they are either both left-handed or both
right-handed.

Someone in the US who works for minimum-wage is almost certain not to have
a graduate-level education.

US evangelical Christians can be automatically assumed to be Republicans --
you can deduce their political affiliations without talking to them about it.

British Jews are nearly always strong supporters of Israel.

Etc. etc.

So, in backgammon, things appear obvious to me, but because I know that
I don't know the game to expert level, I'm not necessarily surprised when
my "obvious" thoughts are wrong.

Here, I "obviously" escape at DMP but I won't be amazed if I'm wrong.
Furthermore, if a move appears "obvious" to me and it's only correct very
narrowly, then it shows that I was wrong to think of it as obvious.

If I'm a favourite at DMP, I simply work to eliminate the opponent's main
winning plan. Here, that plan is to stop me escaping, so I will escape.
I'd probably play 24/8 at DMP but if it was a doubles match and Tim was my
partner, I'd probably just hum along to Tim's tune.


Paul
Tim Chow
2020-07-30 03:43:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

Just make the 5pt, of course. What, did you think there was some other
rule that might apply here?

1. Rollout¹ 13/5(2) eq:+0.714
Player: 69.75% (G:48.14% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 30.25% (G:4.44% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.705..+0.722) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/16 13/9(2) eq:+0.554 (-0.160)
Player: 71.27% (G:28.74% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 28.73% (G:5.14% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.546..+0.561) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/9(3) eq:+0.529 (-0.185)
Player: 67.81% (G:33.36% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 32.19% (G:3.89% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.521..+0.536) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-07-30 07:52:12 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
Just make the 5pt, of course. What, did you think there was some other
rule that might apply here?
1. Rollout¹ 13/5(2) eq:+0.714
Player: 69.75% (G:48.14% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 30.25% (G:4.44% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.705..+0.722) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/16 13/9(2) eq:+0.554 (-0.160)
Player: 71.27% (G:28.74% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 28.73% (G:5.14% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.546..+0.561) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/9(3) eq:+0.529 (-0.185)
Player: 67.81% (G:33.36% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 32.19% (G:3.89% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.521..+0.536) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
I'll consider myself DMP-vindicated by the fact that an escaping play
gets significantly more wins than the money play (although a DMP rollout
would be the way to check).

Paul
b***@gmail.com
2020-07-30 12:56:11 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
Just make the 5pt, of course. What, did you think there was some other
rule that might apply here?
1. Rollout¹ 13/5(2) eq:+0.714
Player: 69.75% (G:48.14% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 30.25% (G:4.44% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.705..+0.722) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/16 13/9(2) eq:+0.554 (-0.160)
Player: 71.27% (G:28.74% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 28.73% (G:5.14% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.546..+0.561) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/9(3) eq:+0.529 (-0.185)
Player: 67.81% (G:33.36% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 32.19% (G:3.89% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.521..+0.536) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
I'll consider myself DMP-vindicated by the fact that an escaping play
gets significantly more wins than the money play (although a DMP rollout
would be the way to check).
Paul
If I quote something as my earlier post "The difference between the plays at dmp is .015" I've already done a rollout and that's what I'm referring to.

Stick
Paul Epstein
2020-07-30 13:47:56 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by b***@gmail.com
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBC-Db-----C-a-bbc-bb-A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44
Just make the 5pt, of course. What, did you think there was some other
rule that might apply here?
1. Rollout¹ 13/5(2) eq:+0.714
Player: 69.75% (G:48.14% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 30.25% (G:4.44% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.705..+0.722) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/16 13/9(2) eq:+0.554 (-0.160)
Player: 71.27% (G:28.74% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 28.73% (G:5.14% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.546..+0.561) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/9(3) eq:+0.529 (-0.185)
Player: 67.81% (G:33.36% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 32.19% (G:3.89% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.521..+0.536) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
I'll consider myself DMP-vindicated by the fact that an escaping play
gets significantly more wins than the money play (although a DMP rollout
would be the way to check).
Paul
If I quote something as my earlier post "The difference between the plays at dmp is .015" I've already done a rollout and that's what I'm referring to.
What's the DMP play?

Loading...