Early blitz cube action

Timothy Chow

2024-03-05 08:12:59 UTC

XGID=abBa-AB-E-A-dC---c-bb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 193 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

X has 11 checkers in the zone and has escaped one of his back
checkers. He has a massive lead in the pip count. On the other
hand, he has only a two-point board, with one of his points
being the 2pt. O is anchored and has good chances of making a
second anchor, and she has made her own 5pt. This is an easy
take for O, but I thought it was a good double for X. In practice
I think there are many who will pass this cube, but XG says it's
far from a double.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 56.92% (G:29.57% B:4.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.08% (G:7.84% B:0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.87% (G:29.45% B:4.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.13% (G:7.82% B:0.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.514
Double/Take: +0.409 (-0.105)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.486)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.8%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.496..+0.533)
Confidence Double: ± 0.025 (+0.385..+0.434)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow