Discussion:
"Either 5pt beats either 4pt"
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Tim Chow
2020-06-22 14:17:58 UTC
Permalink
The subject line is a rule of thumb that I learned from Nack Ballard.
Does it apply here?


XGID=-a---BCCA---cC----beAbAbA-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow
b***@gmail.com
2020-06-25 00:39:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
The subject line is a rule of thumb that I learned from Nack Ballard.
Does it apply here?
XGID=-a---BCCA---cC----beAbAbA-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
Pretty sure it applies here because of the number of awkwardly stacked men the opponent has in the zone. If we were to remove some of that wood, the 4pt might indeed come out ahead of the 20pt.

Stick
Tim Chow
2020-06-25 01:23:24 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a---BCCA---cC----beAbAbA-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

The subject line is a slight psychological trick because it might suggest
that the various plays that make the golden anchor are all very close.
But the rollout says that that's far from the truth. Only 24/20 22/20
gets the nod.

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 22/20 eq:+0.079
Player: 46.56% (G:8.20% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 53.44% (G:13.36% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.070..+0.089) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.026 (-0.053)
Player: 47.92% (G:11.82% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 52.08% (G:24.79% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.016..+0.036) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/22 20/16 eq:-0.003 (-0.082)
Player: 45.71% (G:9.28% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.92% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.013..+0.007) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/11 eq:-0.015 (-0.094)
Player: 45.30% (G:9.18% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 54.70% (G:20.29% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.024..-0.005) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/20 7/5 eq:-0.024 (-0.104)
Player: 44.30% (G:8.58% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 55.70% (G:18.08% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.033..-0.016) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/9 eq:-0.030 (-0.109)
Player: 45.97% (G:9.62% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 54.03% (G:23.22% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.040..-0.021) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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Tim Chow

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