Discussion:
Wish I had six aces to play
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Tim Chow
2020-06-04 04:43:40 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-05 10:15:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
The ultra-safe 5 prime 11/9 8/7(2) is tempting.
However, it's inflexible and results in a position which is unlikely
to improve in the near future.
8/7(2) 6/5(2) unstacks and creates great points and priming potential.
However, the cost is a lot of shots.
But the shots are hardly fatal and potentially allow us to build a
useful point in our opponent's board.
We hope that the shots are missed in which case we look forward to
escaping and pushing the prime even further.
I'll play 8/7(2) 6/5(2) with 78% confidence.

Paul
b***@gmail.com
2020-06-06 03:01:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
---
Tim Chow
How many would you really like to have to play? I only did it quickly but I think 47 is right.

Stick
Paul Epstein
2020-06-06 07:33:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by b***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
---
Tim Chow
How many would you really like to have to play? I only did it quickly but I think 47 is right.
I can confirm this. The checker on the 24 point should stay where it is.
Now move to a closed board while using as few pips as possible to maintain
maximum timing for the escape. The computation is Current pip count - 11
- 10 - 24 - mininmum number of pips in a closed board = 134 - 45 - 42 = 47.
I know that this answer seems to contradict the Hitchhiker's Guide to the
Galaxy axiom that the answer to the most important question is 42.
However, the most important question isn't "How many aces would you like to
play?" The question is "What's the minimum number of pips in a closed board?"

Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-06-06 07:39:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by b***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
---
Tim Chow
How many would you really like to have to play? I only did it quickly but I think 47 is right.
I can confirm this. The checker on the 24 point should stay where it is.
Now move to a closed board while using as few pips as possible to maintain
maximum timing for the escape. The computation is Current pip count - 11
- 10 - 24 - mininmum number of pips in a closed board = 134 - 45 - 42 = 47.
I know that this answer seems to contradict the Hitchhiker's Guide to the
Galaxy axiom that the answer to the most important question is 42.
However, the most important question isn't "How many aces would you like to
play?" The question is "What's the minimum number of pips in a closed board?"
Paul
This answer of 47 assumes no-Jacoby which I think is Tim's convention.
With Jacoby, we push the prime only just far enough to have a cash to minimise
risk of crashing numbers. So we would get less than 47 with Jacoby.

Paul
Tim Chow
2020-06-11 01:41:45 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

I opted to make my 5pt here but XG prefers making the solid five-prime.

1. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7(2) eq:-0.105
Player: 47.08% (G:12.40% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 52.92% (G:13.40% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.113..-0.097) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:-0.146 (-0.042)
Player: 45.68% (G:12.28% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 54.32% (G:12.98% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.154..-0.139) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.162 (-0.057)
Player: 46.78% (G:12.43% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 53.22% (G:17.13% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.170..-0.154) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-11 18:32:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-a--E-EABAc----bbbb-b-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
I opted to make my 5pt here but XG prefers making the solid five-prime.
1. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7(2) eq:-0.105
Player: 47.08% (G:12.40% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 52.92% (G:13.40% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.113..-0.097) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:-0.146 (-0.042)
Player: 45.68% (G:12.28% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 54.32% (G:12.98% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.154..-0.139) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.162 (-0.057)
Player: 46.78% (G:12.43% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 53.22% (G:17.13% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.170..-0.154) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Please could you state your play?
Merely saying that you made your 5 point doesn't reveal
this essential info.

Thanks,

Paul
Tim Chow
2020-06-12 03:05:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Please could you state your play?
8/7(2) 6/5(2).

---
Tim Chow

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