2020-07-26 11:08:35 UTC
On another thread, Tim gave the below position.
I'm not sure how active Robertie is as a backgammon author.
However, if he put Tim's position in a book, he would
say something like: "However, O, who is being blitzed,
is likely to have fewer decisions than X. It will be
very hard for X to squeeze every drop of equity out of
the position. Since X is likely to lose at least 0.04 equity
from inaccuracies, this is a practical take."
There are many pitfalls with this advice. Here's one of them:
Obviously, the readers are highly unlikely to meet that exact
position in practice. So the relevant practical question is:
How should the practical cube action be assessed in positions which
"look similar" to Tim's position?
If the readers are equity-omniscient and realise that the take-equity
is approx -1.03, then the Robertie advice is valid. However, such
omniscience doesn't exist. A willingness to take such cubes will lead
to players thinking they are taking at approx -1.03 when they are actually
taking at -1.2. In other words, a player can't use Robertie's reasoning OTB
but can only claim retrospectively to have followed it through luck.
Taking blitz cubes for money is very dangerous -- I would
err on the side of caution here. In other words, I think it's more common
for a position which seems takeable to be a massive drop than for a position
that looks like a drop to be a massive take. Unless you're world-class
(and probably even then), losing 0.065 on a bad pass in a blitz position
shouldn't worry you.
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
| X O O X | | O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
Pip count X: 123 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances: 69.05% (G:27.43% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.95% (G:6.01% B:0.27%)
Player Winning Chances: 68.97% (G:32.13% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.03% (G:7.17% B:0.36%)
No double: +0.772 (-0.228)
Double/Take: +1.034 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Double / Pass