XGID=-A--CBCaB--------bccbbBBb-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X O |
| O O | | O O O X X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41
X's timing is poor and the "kamikaze" 8/7*/3 is the best chance to win,
but does it lose too many gammons? According to the rollout below,
8/7*/3 is the money play. But see also the variant.
1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/3 eq:-0.396
Player: 36.01% (G:4.64% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 63.99% (G:29.82% B:1.62%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.406..-0.385) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/2 eq:-0.443 (-0.048)
Player: 35.94% (G:4.03% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 64.06% (G:33.45% B:2.31%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.456..-0.431) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/7* eq:-0.508 (-0.113)
Player: 31.40% (G:4.03% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 68.60% (G:29.32% B:1.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.519..-0.498) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:-0.561 (-0.165)
Player: 27.37% (G:2.16% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 72.63% (G:22.32% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.568..-0.554) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/3 eq:-0.562 (-0.166)
Player: 27.43% (G:2.09% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 72.57% (G:22.39% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.569..-0.555) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-A--CBCaB-------bbbbccBB--:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O X X |
| O O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:-0.732
Player: 21.03% (G:1.96% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 78.97% (G:24.29% B:0.97%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.739..-0.726) - [52.8%]
2. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/3 eq:-0.732
Player: 20.38% (G:1.93% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 79.62% (G:23.02% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.738..-0.727) - [47.2%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/3 eq:-0.749 (-0.017)
Player: 23.60% (G:2.56% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 76.40% (G:32.78% B:1.82%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.756..-0.742) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow