Discussion:
5pt or 4pt?
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2020-07-25 15:50:44 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow
c***@gmail.com
2020-07-25 17:09:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
5-1, 8-4.

And then watch XG (or GnuBG) roll 4-1. Watch it.
Peter
2020-07-25 17:46:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by c***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
5-1, 8-4.
And then watch XG (or GnuBG) roll 4-1. Watch it.
But if O doesn't roll 41, what's your game plane and how will it work out?
Paul Epstein
2020-07-26 10:10:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter
Post by c***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
5-1, 8-4.
And then watch XG (or GnuBG) roll 4-1. Watch it.
But if O doesn't roll 41, what's your game plane and how will it work out?
X has been illegally hunting game in a protected area.
The game plane is the private plane that will transport the dead
animals for export.

How will this plan work out?
Unfortunately, it's likely to work out well because of
the lack of anti-poaching enforcement.

Paul
Peter
2020-07-26 11:38:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Peter
Post by c***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
5-1, 8-4.
And then watch XG (or GnuBG) roll 4-1. Watch it.
But if O doesn't roll 41, what's your game plane and how will it work out?
X has been illegally hunting game in a protected area.
The game plane is the private plane that will transport the dead
animals for export.
How will this plan work out?
Unfortunately, it's likely to work out well because of
the lack of anti-poaching enforcement.
Paul
Oh dear an extraneous e.
Paul Epstein
2020-07-26 14:16:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Peter
Post by c***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
5-1, 8-4.
And then watch XG (or GnuBG) roll 4-1. Watch it.
But if O doesn't roll 41, what's your game plane and how will it work out?
X has been illegally hunting game in a protected area.
The game plane is the private plane that will transport the dead
animals for export.
How will this plan work out?
Unfortunately, it's likely to work out well because of
the lack of anti-poaching enforcement.
Paul
Oh dear an extraneous e.
I'm sure you're right about the play, though.
c***@gmail.com
2020-07-28 15:36:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter
Post by c***@gmail.com
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
5-1, 8-4.
And then watch XG (or GnuBG) roll 4-1. Watch it.
But if O doesn't roll 41, what's your game plane and how will it work out?
If it's XG or GnuGB they *will* roll 4-1.

Peter
2020-07-25 17:37:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
---
Tim Chow
4pt

That's what I think.
Paul Epstein
2020-07-25 21:30:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42
Don't call me Ishmael.
Call me Walt.
I can see that there is another respondent on this thread
but I don't know who this is or what they said.
Hopefully, they agree with me because there's a positive correlation
between popularity and correctness on these quizzes.
I'll make the 5 point with 60% confidence.
For the 4 point play to work, Oppy needs to miss the shot
and we need to cover the 5 point on the next turn.
This combined parlay must be < 50%. It's not worth taking
such a risk for what is only a three point board.
After making the 5 point, I hope Oppy doesn't roll a 3 but
even a 3 wouldn't be that terrifying.

Paul
Tim Chow
2020-07-28 12:36:00 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

The 5pt is of course usually better than the 4pt, but here, making the 4pt
hits, and leaves a better distribution. On the other hand, 8/4* 6/4 leaves
a lot of return shots.

The rollout clearly favors making the 4pt. One thing to take into account
is that even if O hits from the bar, X might still win the battle for his 5pt,
since he has a lot of return shots himself.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4* 6/4 eq:-0.197
Player: 46.30% (G:14.04% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 53.70% (G:19.25% B:1.63%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.208..-0.186) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:-0.276 (-0.079)
Player: 43.62% (G:11.24% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 56.38% (G:16.81% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.283..-0.269) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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