Discussion:
Blitz versus prime cube action
(too old to reply)
Timothy Chow
2024-01-17 14:05:39 UTC
Permalink
XGID=bBBCB-B--A--b-a--bbdbA-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow
Timothy Chow
2024-01-19 15:33:14 UTC
Permalink
XGID=bBBCB-B--A--b-a--bbdbA-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Can O take? Two checkers on the bar against a five-point board, with a
third blot vulnerable to being hit as well, looks like a pretty dire
predicament. But X may have some difficulty leaping his back checkers
over O's prime before he is forced to crunch his board. The rollout
below says it's a pass, but just barely. Shifting X's spare on his
3pt to his 2pt causes XG to take (see variant below).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.64% (G:46.08% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.36% (G:7.82% B:0.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.74% (G:46.55% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.26% (G:7.89% B:0.35%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.748 (-0.252)
Double/Take: +1.014 (+0.014)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.735..+0.761)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.994..+1.033)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bBCBB-B--A--b-a--bbdbA-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 62.53% (G:45.18% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.47% (G:8.22% B:0.40%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.73% (G:45.75% B:0.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.27% (G:8.32% B:0.43%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.701 (-0.225)
Double/Take: +0.926
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.074)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.686..+0.715)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.905..+0.947)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Loading...