Discussion:
You can leave zero shots, but you're not going to do that, are you?
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2020-06-14 04:03:30 UTC
Permalink
XGID=--ABBbB-B--BbB---bBbbbab--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow
Paul Epstein
2020-06-14 07:25:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--ABBbB-B--BbB---bBbbbab--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
Leaving zero shots compromises our position and leaves a worse
pay-now/ pay-later problem for next roll.
Pay now while O has an inner board blot.
18/14 18/13 has a tolerable risk level.
Note that three of O's nines don't hit.

Being of the suspicious sort, I wouldn't be surprised if Tim
variantizes to make the nines active (and therefore 18/14 18/13
too risky) and then marvels at the subtlety of the problem.

Actually, we do have a variant. It's the identity variant.
If the theory of variantizing followed normal mathematical conventions,
the definition would be constructed such that P is a variant of P.
In this identity variant, I maintain that 18/13 18/14 is correct.
If it isn't, sue me.

Paul
b***@gmail.com
2020-06-14 20:25:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Epstein
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--ABBbB-B--BbB---bBbbbab--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
Leaving zero shots compromises our position and leaves a worse
pay-now/ pay-later problem for next roll.
Pay now while O has an inner board blot.
18/14 18/13 has a tolerable risk level.
Note that three of O's nines don't hit.
Being of the suspicious sort, I wouldn't be surprised if Tim
variantizes to make the nines active (and therefore 18/14 18/13
too risky) and then marvels at the subtlety of the problem.
Actually, we do have a variant. It's the identity variant.
If the theory of variantizing followed normal mathematical conventions,
the definition would be constructed such that P is a variant of P.
In this identity variant, I maintain that 18/13 18/14 is correct.
If it isn't, sue me.
Paul
You aren't up in the race and the opponent's position is totally stripped out so he has nothing to easily play next turn if you keep pressure on all aspects of the board. In other words, I will be suing you.

Stick
Tim Chow
2020-06-20 15:50:40 UTC
Permalink
XGID=--ABBbB-B--BbB---bBbbbab--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

I didn't even bother rolling out the safe plays. As Stick said, we can
rule out the minimizing-contact 18/14 18/13 as being anti-thematic, but
that still leaves several candidates to choose from. XG's play holds
both six-away points for maximum pressure; the rollout puts this ahead
of 11/7 11/6, which minimizes shots (given that you're not leaving 0 shots).

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:-0.149
Player: 46.51% (G:8.21% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 53.49% (G:16.56% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.160..-0.138) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/6 eq:-0.215 (-0.066)
Player: 44.60% (G:9.79% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 55.40% (G:17.24% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.225..-0.205) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/2 eq:-0.238 (-0.089)
Player: 44.34% (G:11.35% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 55.66% (G:19.29% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.248..-0.228) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.259 (-0.111)
Player: 44.14% (G:8.46% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 55.86% (G:20.50% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.269..-0.250) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 18/14 18/13 eq:-0.276 (-0.127)
Player: 43.58% (G:4.19% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 56.42% (G:17.22% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.286..-0.266) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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