XGID=--a-cCB-CB-b-C---Babb-bb--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
If X is going to leave a shot, then making the bar point is going to
be better than hitting. The question is whether X should leave a shot
at all. Although 8/5 is a bit ugly, I'm still a little surprised that
XG volunteers a shot here. See the variant for comparison, where I have
strengthened O's board and moved O's straggler back a pip.
1. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.667
Player: 66.07% (G:14.68% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 33.93% (G:10.67% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.654..+0.680) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 5/2* eq:+0.585 (-0.082)
Player: 63.75% (G:14.47% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 36.25% (G:10.91% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.571..+0.598) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.579 (-0.088)
Player: 63.50% (G:13.41% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 36.50% (G:9.82% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.567..+0.591) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a--cCB-CB-b-C---Babbbb---:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
1. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.520
Player: 61.55% (G:13.17% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 38.45% (G:10.64% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.512..+0.528) - [58.3%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.518 (-0.001)
Player: 62.42% (G:12.10% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 37.58% (G:11.57% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.509..+0.528) - [41.7%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow