Playing 44 when O has three blots in her board

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Tim Chow

2018-07-23 23:47:33 UTC

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BlueDice

2018-07-24 08:11:24 UTC

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Post by Tim Chow
XGID=--A-BCCbA---cC----cdBaaa--:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44
---
Tim Chow

20/16(2) 13/9 6/2
Looking at O's board I immediately go into 'wild mode'!
ie: wild if required.
We now have a 15 pip lead after the roll so should start heading for home.
O will not be happy to break her advanced anchor.
--
BD

Michael

2018-07-25 07:52:38 UTC

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I think we have to play 20/16x2.
Then we have a race lead and lack of timing, plus any way we play we lose connectivity.
Problem diminishes with 13/9x2. We are not much worried of getting hit and the blot at 13 serves for connectivity purposes.
I tried some other combinations like making the 2 point but didn't like them as the b.m problems persisted.
So I will try that.

[26/16 13/9]x2

Tim Chow

2018-07-25 23:21:29 UTC

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XGID=--A-BCCbA---cC----cdBaaa--:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

This is enough of a pip count gain that we should be trying to race. We
can afford to be bold because of O's three blots. The bot play is 20/16(2)
13/9(2). I think that the point of 13/9(2) is to clear the midpoint, which
may be potentially troublesome to clear later when O tidies up her board.

1. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.288
Player: 59.47% (G:6.12% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 40.53% (G:4.21% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.278..+0.298) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9 6/2 eq:+0.204 (-0.084)
Player: 56.82% (G:6.76% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 43.18% (G:5.43% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.195..+0.214) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(3) 6/2 eq:+0.168 (-0.120)
Player: 56.07% (G:7.24% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 43.93% (G:4.18% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.158..+0.178) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9(3) 8/4 eq:+0.168 (-0.121)
Player: 56.19% (G:7.04% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 43.81% (G:4.45% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.158..+0.177) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9 8/4 eq:+0.167 (-0.121)
Player: 55.70% (G:7.01% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 44.30% (G:5.96% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.158..+0.176) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/5 eq:+0.162 (-0.126)
Player: 55.48% (G:6.50% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 44.52% (G:5.63% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.153..+0.171) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.145 (-0.143)
Player: 55.32% (G:7.41% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 44.68% (G:4.50% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.136..+0.155) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 13/9(3) 5/1 eq:+0.139 (-0.149)
Player: 55.38% (G:7.07% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 44.62% (G:4.68% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.130..+0.149) - [0.0%]

9. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4 6/2 eq:+0.131 (-0.157)
Player: 54.41% (G:7.62% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 45.59% (G:4.88% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.121..+0.141) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow