Another powerful blitz

Discussion:

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Tim Chow

2017-11-11 23:57:05 UTC

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Peter Percival

2017-11-12 00:05:25 UTC

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Post by Tim Chow
XGID=a-BBBCCA----c---b-Bcbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 94 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

7/3

--
Do, as a concession to my poor wits, Lord Darlington, just explain
to me what you really mean.
I think I had better not, Duchess. Nowadays to be intelligible is
to be found out. -- Oscar Wilde, Lady Windermere's Fan

Michael

2017-11-12 14:02:11 UTC

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One lesson I learned quite early is to break anchors when opponent is on bar.
18/14 is my move.
Hits back with 16,12,11.
You can never be sure with these quizes, but on the other hand I don't have eyes for anything else.

Tim Chow

2017-11-14 01:21:11 UTC

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XGID=a-BBBCCA----c---b-Bcbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 94 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

I attempted to take advantage of O being on the bar to break anchor, but
the rollout says it's a blunder. See the variant, where moving the blot
doesn't create three builders for the 1pt, and breaking anchor doesn't
leave a blot on the bar point where it is vulnerable to getting hit when
O's straggler escapes.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3 eq:+0.972
Player: 82.18% (G:42.61% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 17.82% (G:3.03% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.967..+0.978) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3 5/4 eq:+0.923 (-0.049)
Player: 80.54% (G:43.34% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 19.46% (G:4.91% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.917..+0.929) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/14 eq:+0.885 (-0.087)
Player: 79.55% (G:42.08% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 20.45% (G:6.15% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.880..+0.890) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-BBBCC--A--c---b-Bcbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 18/14 eq:+0.891
Player: 81.51% (G:37.83% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 18.49% (G:4.53% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.885..+0.896) - [60.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5 eq:+0.889 (-0.001)
Player: 80.08% (G:39.61% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 19.92% (G:3.52% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.884..+0.895) - [39.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---
Tim Chow