Discussion:
Another "run or stay" problem
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2016-11-20 18:29:00 UTC
Permalink
Note that here, O also has a straggler.

XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow
m***@gmail.com
2016-11-20 19:30:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
Note that here, O also has a straggler.
XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
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Tim Chow
I don't see anything out of the ordinary here.
Running to safety while O still has a straggler should increase X's equity more than any other move.
21/11
BlueDice
2016-11-20 21:34:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
Note that here, O also has a straggler.
XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
---
Tim Chow
Staying back deprives O of safe landing spaces in the outfield. The cost of potentially getting a shot from there is the extra gammmon losses compared to running with 21/11. I would not be able to make a sensible estimate OTB so I would stay back and play 8/2 6/2
--
BD
Walt
2016-11-22 18:49:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
Note that here, O also has a straggler.
XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
If X runs and then O breaks contact, X still has some decent racing
chances. If O can't escape (I count twelve clean escaping rolls) then X
is well poised to hit loose if she runs to the outfield, has a few poh
rolls if she stays plus some rolls that fortify the blockade.

I like the running play. Sitting still seems to invite loose hits and
gammons

21/11
--
//Walt
Tim Chow
2016-11-22 20:34:55 UTC
Permalink
XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

X is ten pips behind in the race after the roll, so that would suggest that
staying back is the DMP play. It probably is, but since O has a significantly
stronger board, staying back also loses considerably more gammons. Not sure
how to assess the tradeoff other than by studying a lot of positions like this
one and getting a feel for it.

1. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.302
Player: 40.32% (G:3.00% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 59.68% (G:5.97% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.311..-0.294) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.380 (-0.077)
Player: 40.78% (G:9.83% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 59.22% (G:19.89% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.392..-0.367) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
Walt
2016-11-23 15:26:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X is ten pips behind in the race after the roll, so that would suggest that
staying back is the DMP play. It probably is...
Yeah, but not by much according to the rollout. I've included the
hitting play since "hit first and ask questions later @DMP"

XGID=---Ba-D-C--CdB-----cbAcb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 114 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.186
Player: 40.70% (G:7.91% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 59.30% (G:18.00% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.190..-0.182) - [95.5%]
Duration: 10 minutes 49 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.190 (-0.004)
Player: 40.49% (G:2.09% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 59.51% (G:6.25% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.193..-0.187) - [4.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 00 second

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 8/4* eq:-0.207 (-0.021)
Player: 39.64% (G:5.75% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 60.36% (G:28.19% B:1.21%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.211..-0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 00 second


¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
--
//Walt
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