Discussion:
Cube Decission 6 out of 9
(too old to reply)
Michael
2018-06-10 08:45:13 UTC
Permalink
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
BlueDice
2018-06-10 08:51:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
D/T
We have advantage with P, R & T but not overwhelmingly so.
--
BD
BlueDice
2018-06-10 09:13:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by BlueDice
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
D/T
We have advantage with P, R & T but not overwhelmingly so.
--
BD
CORRECTION
----------
Maybe not so much P
--
BD
Paul
2018-06-10 10:56:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.

Paul
BlueDice
2018-06-10 12:11:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
Rough estimate:
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
BlueDice
2018-06-10 13:15:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by BlueDice
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
CORRECTION
----------
O fans 45% ==>> O fans 25% of the time, 7/36 market losers?
--
BD
Paul
2018-06-10 16:50:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by BlueDice
Post by BlueDice
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
CORRECTION
----------
O fans 45% ==>> O fans 25% of the time, 7/36 market losers?
Yes, that proves my point -- 7/36 is an O'Hagan ND/T, particularly
when you bear in mind that the market losers are less than crushing
and don't lose market by much.

Paul
j***@gmail.com
2018-06-10 17:06:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by BlueDice
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
Why only 28 numbers? I can only see [42] at a quick glance that doesn't make another point.

Stick
Paul
2018-06-10 17:11:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by j***@gmail.com
Post by BlueDice
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
Why only 28 numbers? I can only see [42] at a quick glance that doesn't make another point.
Well, 22 doesn't make another point, does it?
Maybe we should get together and organise a miscounting party.

Paul
j***@gmail.com
2018-06-10 17:57:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul
Post by j***@gmail.com
Post by BlueDice
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
Why only 28 numbers? I can only see [42] at a quick glance that doesn't make another point.
Well, 22 doesn't make another point, does it?
Maybe we should get together and organise a miscounting party.
Paul
You don't play 11/3 with a [22]?

Stick
Paul
2018-06-10 20:41:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by j***@gmail.com
Post by Paul
Post by j***@gmail.com
Post by BlueDice
Post by Paul
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
ND/T because not enough market losers.
Paul
X makes another inner point with about 28 numbers putting a 2nd checker on the bar with some of those.
O fans 45% of the time, more than 12/36 market losers?
--
BD
Why only 28 numbers? I can only see [42] at a quick glance that doesn't make another point.
Well, 22 doesn't make another point, does it?
Maybe we should get together and organise a miscounting party.
Paul
You don't play 11/3 with a [22]?
Sorry, missed that one.

Paul
Michael
2018-06-10 12:32:08 UTC
Permalink
One of my criteria in deciding to Double is to look if the opponent is on bar. In that case we usually have an easy Double. The reason s because of the dancing sequences as BD said that might lead to a Pass (market losers). It's a bit of difficult in this position to count/estimate the market losers out of 1296, but imo it's worth considering that opponent is on bar.
Apologies for stepping in my own quiz, I thought it was worth mentioning this "trick"
Tim Chow
2018-06-10 17:30:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
My first instinct is that this is a take because O has made her 5pt, has
one anchor already, has no checkers out of play, and also X has only a
two-point board. Looking more closely, I'm less sure of the take because
O doesn't really have the timing for a backgame and X's prime is already
developing pretty well. But if O manages to hit X's blot then I think
she will almost equalize the game. Since I'm not sure of the take, I
certainly double. D/T but I won't be too surprised if it rolls out to
a pass.

---
Tim Chow
Michael
2018-06-11 11:04:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael
GNU Backgammon Position ID: sGdwAFo055gBIg
Match ID : cAkAAAAAAAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O | O | O O X X | 0 points
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O | On roll
| O X X | | X X X O O | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: X
Pip counts : O 185, X 146
I don't know why I posted this quiz since my own verdict was also for a D/T.
Probably the players played something else.
It turned out to be a bit of educational though.
Anyway I don't have anything more to say, other than what has already been said.


Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5473

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.8615
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.1385)
3. No double +0.7840 ( -0.0775)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
63.57 31.84 4.52 - 36.43 8.36 0.40 CL +0.5473 CF +0.7840
[ 0.08 0.11 0.05 - 0.08 0.05 0.01 CL 0.0022 CF 0.0037]
Player O owns 2-cube:
63.75 32.27 4.71 - 36.25 8.43 0.42 CL +1.1127 CF +0.8615
[ 0.09 0.13 0.07 - 0.09 0.06 0.01 CL 0.0054 CF 0.0060]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 7) with var.redn.
360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 573137995 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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